Jayson Tatum Injury Update Doesn't Impact Celtics NBA Finals Odds

Boston Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum has been rehabbing from an Achilles injury that he suffered in last season's playoffs, and it appeared that he was on track to return at some point during the 2025-26 season.

Now, his status is up in the air. According to NBA insider Chris Haynes, Tatum is "re-evaluating" his situation and is considering sitting out the entire 2025-26 season. That would be a major blow to Boston's NBA Finals hopes in theory, but oddsmakers don't seem to feel the same way.

Sources: Boston Celtics star Jayson Tatum (Achilles recovery) is re-evaluating his situation and is now considering sitting out the entire 2025-26 season. Final decision has yet to be determined. pic.twitter.com/Z8CcVjFSIr
— Chris Haynes (@ChrisBHaynes) January 29, 2026

Boston remains No. 3 in the odds to win the NBA Finals at +1200, behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder (+125) and Denver Nuggets (+500) in the latest odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. It's possible the betting market is waiting for an official declaration on Tatum's status, as there is no doubt that Boston's championship ceiling is lower without the All-NBA forward.

The C's are currently the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, and they rank third in the NBA in net rating and second in offensive rating this season. Jaylen Brown has played at an All-NBA level all season for Boston, but the team's draw in the championship market would be adding Tatum back to this core for a playoff run.

The Celtics as currently constructed are still a rather thin team, and it's hard to argue that they'd beat one of the top Western Conference contenders in the Finals. Boston could still make its way out of a thin Eastern Conference, but it would need Brown, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard to all continue playing at a high level.

Tatum's status looms large for the C's with the Feb. 5 trade deadline approaching.

If Tatum is going to sit out the rest of the season, Boston may avoid making a win-now trade. Instead, the team could look to shed salary (such as Anfernee Simons' expiring deal) in order to get under the luxury tax this season. That would help reset Boston's books before Tatum returns for the 2026-27 season.

However, if the All-Star forward decides he is good to return this season, Boston may end up being a buyer at the deadline to get a frontcourt piece. The C's are a little thin at center with Neemias Queta, Luka Garza and two-way player Amari Williams as their primary options.

It is interesting that Haynes' report did not shift Boston's odds in the futures market, as it remains ahead of the New York Knicks (+1400) and Detroit Pistons (+1800) in the odds to win the Finals. Boston is tied with New York at +340 in the odds to win the Eastern Conference.

Tatum returning this season would be pretty miraculous since he was injured in the second round of the playoffs last season, but he has performed public workouts and had previously hinted at wanting to return in the 2025-26 season.

Ultimately, Boston should do what is best for the long-term future of Tatum's career, as it could be a Finals contender for years to come as long as he's fully healthy.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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