Jessica Pegula vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Odds for Australian Open Semifinals

No. 6 Jessica Pegula is looking for her third straight win over a top-10 player when she takes on No. 5 Elena Rybakina in the Australian Open semifinals on Thursday morning.

Pegula is making the first semifinal appearance of her career at Melbourne Park, and this is the first time she’s reached a semifinal of a Grand Slam that wasn’t the U.S. Open.

Meanwhile, Rybakina – the 2022 Wimbledon champion – is looking to get back to the Australian Open final for the first time since she was the runner-up in 2023. Rybakina knocked off No. 2 Iga Swiatek in straight sets in the quarterfinals, and she has yet to lose a single set in this tournament.

There is a lot of history between Pegula and Rybakina, as they’ve faced six times with each player winning three matches. So, who gets the decisive seventh match with a trip to a Grand Slam final on the line?

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s path to this spot and my prediction for this semifinal.

Jessica Pegula vs. Elena Rybakina Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Jessica Pegula: +179
Elena Rybakina: -222

Total

22.5 (Over -115/Under -125)

Jessica Pegula vs. Elena Rybakina How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Jan. 29
Time: 5:00 a.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Jessica Pegula vs. Elena Rybakina History and Path to Semifinals

Pegula and Rybakina met just once in 2025, with the No. 5 player in the world taking their match at the WTA Finals in three sets. They also split a pair of appearances against each other back in 2023, but these two have never met in a Grand Slam before.

Jessica Pegula

It’s been a tough path to the semifinals for Pegula, but she’s playing at a high level so far in 2026.

The American has not lost a set in the Australian Open, and she’s knocked off No. 9 Madison Keys and No. 4 Amanda Anisimova in back-to-back matches. Pegula also hasn’t really messed around in this tournament, losing just five games over the first two rounds and 25 games overall (across five matches) to this point. So, she’s made relatively quick work of all of her opponents.

In her lone meeting with Rybakina in 2025, Pegula won the first set before dropping the next two to lose the match.

Elena Rybakina

Rybakina has been equally as dominant in the Australian Open, losing just 29 games in five matches while winning every single set. She dominated Iga Swiatek in the second set of the quarterfinals on her way to a 7-5, 6-1 win.

This is a familiar spot for Rybakina, as she made the Australian Open final back in 2023, but she’s coming off a 2025 where she didn’t even appear in a single quarterfinal at a Grand Slam.

Rybakina knocked off Swiatek (No. 2 in the world) and Elise Mertens (No. 21 in the world) in the last two rounds to advance to the semifinals.

Jessica Pegula vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction and Pick

This may seem like a very even matchup coming in – especially with how well both of these players have fared at Melbourne Park this year – but there are some concerning statistics for Pegula in 2026.

The American is winning just 70.5 percent of her service games, which may seem like a strong number, but it pales in comparison to Rybakina (81.2 percent). In addition to that Pegula has converted just 35.7 percent of her break points compared to Rybakina’s 55 percent. So, I think there’s a chance that Rybakina can run away with this match when she’s serving.

That has been the case so far in the Australian Open, as Rybakina has won at least five games more than each of her opponents, including winning seven more than Swiatek in the quarterfinals.

Pegula needed a tiebreak in the second set to beat Anisimova in the quarters, and I think she’ll struggle in Rybakina’s service games. There isn’t much value in taking Rybakina to win at -222, but I do like the games spread (Rybakina -2.5) in this match.

Pick: Rybakina -2.5 Games (-165 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $300 in bonus bets instantly.