%20%20--%3E%0A%3Csvg%20version%3D%221.1%22%20id%3D%22Layer_1%22%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20xmlns%3Axlink%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F1999%2Fxlink%22%20x%3D%220px%22%20y%3D%220px%22%0A%09%20width%3D%2239px%22%20height%3D%2240px%22%20viewBox%3D%220%200%2039%2040%22%20enable-background%3D%22new%200%200%2039%2040%22%20xml%3Aspace%3D%22preserve%22%3E%0A%3Cpath%20fill%3D%22%23FFFFFF%22%20d%3D%22M38.5%2C7H28.2v26h10.3V7z%22%2F%3E%0A%3Cpath%20fill-rule%3D%22evenodd%22%20clip-rule%3D%22evenodd%22%20fill%3D%22%23FFFFFF%22%20d%3D%22M26.1%2C25.5c0%2C5.8-4.1%2C7.5-12.9%2C7.5C3.9%2C33%2C0%2C31.2%2C0%2C25.2v-1.1h11.6%0A%09v2.4c0%2C0.7%2C0.1%2C1.4%2C1.2%2C1.4c1%2C0%2C1.2-0.4%2C1.2-1.3v-0.9c0-1.6-0.9-1.6-3.5-2.2C2.2%2C21.7%2C0%2C19.7%2C0%2C15.3v-0.9C0%2C9.3%2C5.5%2C7%2C12.9%2C7%0A%09c10.2%2C0%2C12.8%2C2.6%2C12.8%2C7.4v1.8h-11v-2.9c0-0.6-0.4-1.1-1.2-1.1c-0.6%2C0-1.2%2C0.4-1.2%2C1.1v0.9c0%2C1.5%2C0.9%2C2%2C3.3%2C2.5%0A%09c8%2C1.6%2C10.5%2C3.3%2C10.5%2C7.5V25.5z%22%2F%3E%0A%3C%2Fsvg%3E%0A)
Josh Allen's History vs. Chiefs Hint at Strong Prop Bet for AFC Championship
With only two NFL games to watch this Sunday, we have plenty of time to deep dive into some numbers to try to find some bets that hold tremendous value.
In this week's edition of the "Road to Super Bowl 59", I broke down a player prop for the AFC Championship between the Chiefs and Bills that may just be my favorite wager of the weekend. It's a bet on Josh Allen to go over his set rushing yards total. Let's dive into that bet a little bit more.
Josh Allen Rushing Yards Total
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
- OVER 48.5 Rush yards (-110)
- UNDER 48.5 Rush Yards (-110)
Bet Josh Allen OVER 48.5 Rush Yards
The Bills quarterback has always been known to take off with his legs when he gets an opportunity, but he was cranked up his rushing numbers in the playoffs and then has cranked it up even further when he faces the Chiefs.
- Josh Allen's Career Regular Season Rush Yards per Game: 37.31
- Josh Allen's Career Postseason Rush Yards per Game: 52.41
- Josh Allen's Career Rush Yards vs. Chiefs: 56.0
Allen averages 15 more rushing yards per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season and then has averaged 18.69 more rush yards per game against the Chiefs than any other opponents. His career average rushing yards against Kansas City of 56.0 is eight yards more than his set total in his game.
The sharp side has been on the OVER already this week. I was able to place the bet on Monday night at OVER 46.5. As of writing this article, it has moved up two more yards to 48.5 and I expect the number to continue to climb as we get closer to kick-off.
As long as you're able to take the OVER on a number that's 50.0 or fewer, I think the wager holds some nice betting value.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!
-eb6ee9a9f2179a90cbfe0d8c654d1a62.jpg "Iain MacMillan")
Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.