Kentucky Derby Prediction, Longshot, Exacta and Trifecta Picks: So Happy, Commandment, Further Ado

The last three winners of the Kentucky Derby have gone off at 7/1 or more and the betting favorite on race day hasn’t won at Churchill Downs since Justify in 2018. In fact, we’ve had more 65/1 or longer winners than single-digit payouts over the last seven years.

Is that a trend with legs or is history about to be bucked? That’s the question I started with when handicapping this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Journalism was the favorite last year but finished 1 1/2 lengths behind Sovereignty. This year, the early favorite, Renegade, drew the rail position. No horse has won from the No. 1 post since Ferdinand in 1986. That means two trends have to be kicked for Renegade to come out on top.

I don’t see it.

Coming out of the gate from the inside is just too hard in a crowded race with so many unpolished purebreds. I also don’t like the 4/1 payout. So who do I like this year…

Let’s break down my picks for the more exciting two minutes in sports starting with the odds.

Kentucky Derby Odds

1. Renegade 4-1
2. Albus 30-1
3. Intrepido 50-1
4. Litmas Test 30-1
5. Right to Party 30-1
6. Commandment 6-1
7. Danon Bourbon 20-1
8. So Happy 15-1
9. The Puma 10-1
10. Wonder Dean 30-1
11. Incredibolt 20-1
12. Chief Wallabee 8-1
13. Silent Tactic SCRATCH
14. Potente 20-1
15. Emerging Market 15-1
16. Pavlovian 30-1
17. Six Speed 50-1
18. Further Ado 6-1
19. Golden Tempo 30-1
20. Fulleffort SCRATCH
21. Great White 50-1
22. Ocelli 50-1

We have two scratches, which brings in a few also qualified on the outside. That’s another dead zone for winners. Only two horses have won from the outside. Still, we have seen plenty of winners from slightly less outside, including last year’s winner, Sovereignty, who won from the 16 spot.

Kentucky Derby Longshot

While I don’t think Renegade crosses first, this race is top heavy and I don’t see a massive longshot getting a win. Cool weather lends itself it faster conditions. There’s too much top-end talent.

I count So Happy among that group. He won the Grade 1 2026 Santa Anita Derby and the 2026 San Vicente, hitting a 126 speed rating in the latter. That’s among the highest of this group. He’s also seasoned, having run four races in the last six months.

Kentucky Derby Prediction

I like two horses at the same odds for different reasons. Further Ado jumps off the board as someone who should thrive at 1 1/4 miles. He’s won three out of his last four races, including the Blue Grass at 1 1/8 mile, where he hit a 127 speed figure. He also hit 119 in an earlier race. He’s no fluke.

Starting from the outside is also beneficial. I imagine he’ll stalk the lead and make his break around turn 3. That’s why I also have him in a few exactas. I just see him being around the front at the line.

Commandment has a similar profile. He’s raced five times in the last six month, winning four of them. His top speed (123) isn’t as high as Further Ado, but he’s been consistently on that number in hias last two races. He won an incredible Grade 1 Florida Derby over The Puma, edging him by a nose. He was two lengths behind on the straightaway, but showed his speed to catch Puma at the wire. If it’s him and Further Ado down the stretch at Churchill, I give the latter the edge.

Kentucky Derby Exacta

I mentioned having Further Ado on a few of these and that’s true. I’m also mixing in So Happy and Commandment. If you want to mix in a fourth, consider Danon Bourbon. I’m not big on international horses, but he’s actually Kentucky bred. He just raced in Japan. That is a different style, but he should be ok here. It’s up to you how you want to mix those four.

Kentucky Derby Trifecta Picks

Emerging Market has been getting a lot of attention in the leadup, but I don’t think he can win. He’s only been racing for a few months. While he won both of his races, it was against smaller fields at lower competition. The odds are intriguing so I’m adding him to a few Trifecta’s. The rest are the four horses mentioned earlier.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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