Kentucky vs. Florida Prediction, Odds for SEC Tournament Quarterfinal

The Kentucky Wildcats and Florida Gators faced off twice in their final seven games of the regular season, and now they meet in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament on Friday afternoon.

Mark Pope’s squad is 0-2 against the Gators this season, losing the regular-season finale at home by seven points, landing the Wildcats in the No. 9 spot in the regular-season standings.

Despite that, Kentucky has rallied over the last two days, knocking off LSU and Missouri to reach the quarterfinals and bolster its resume for the NCAA Tournament.

Meanwhile, the Gators may control their own destiny for a No. 1 seed, as they would likely secure the fourth one if they win the SEC Tournament. Oddsmakers have Florida favored by 11.5 points in Friday’s meeting after it swept the Wildcats in the regular season.

However, neither one of those wins came by more than nine points. Does that open the door for Otega Oweh and the Cats to cover?

Let’s dive into the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this SEC quarterfinal.

Kentucky vs. Florida Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Kentucky +11.5 (-110)
Florida -11.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Kentucky: +575
Florida: -850

Total

159.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Kentucky vs. Florida How to Watch

Date: Friday, March 13
Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Bridgestone Arena
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Kentucky record: 21-12
Florida record: 25-6

Kentucky vs. Florida Key Player to Watch

Thomas Haugh, Forward, Florida

This season, Haugh has given the Wildcats a ton of problems, averaging 18.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game while shooting 46.2 percent from the field and 36.4 percent from beyond the arc.

He had 20 points in the win at Rupp Arena to end the regular season, and he’ll look to attack a fatigued Kentucky team that has allowed 176 points in two meetings with the Gators this season.

Haugh is projected to be a first-round pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, and he could improve his draft stock with a strong showing this March.

Kentucky vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

Now, I’m not super high on this Kentucky team, as it has struggled mightily against the spread all season long.

However, this number is a little disrespectful for the Wildcats after their recent performance against the Gators.

Kentucky trailed by 17 points at the half, but it fought back to make things close in the final minutes, rising a big game from star guard Otega Oweh.

The Wildcats have since flipped the script in the SEC Tournament, holding on to beat LSU and Missouri, even covering as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday.

There is a fatigue factor here, but the Wildcats rank inside the top-40 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency this season. They also had just a nine-point road loss to Florida where they put up 83 points.

The Gators really rely on getting the ball in the paint as they are just 313th in the country in 3-point percentage. Well, Kentucky is 67th in the country in opponent 2-point percentage and it forces teams to take a lot of 3s (just 194th in opponent 3-point rate).

Florida is likely going to win this game, but the Wildcats can keep this within 11.5 points.

Pick: Kentucky +11.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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