Kentucky vs. Iowa State Prediction, Odds, Key Player to Watch for NCAA Tournament 2nd Round

Otega Oweh saved the Kentucky Wildcats’ season on Friday afternoon, as he made a 3-pointer to force overtime against the No. 10 Santa Clara Broncos.

NO. WAY. 😱

WE'RE GOING TO OVERTIME!!! #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/3n8rDxkY3h
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 20, 2026

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Oweh’s shot – and team-high 35 points – sent No. 7 Kentucky to the second round with an overtime win, and they’ll now play against No. 2 Iowa State. The Cyclones dominated Tennessee State in the first round, but it came at a price.

Star Joshua Jefferson (16.4 points per game) suffered a sprained ankle and was in a walking boot after Friday’s win. He’s the second-leading scorer, leading rebounder and second-leading assist man on the Cyclones this season.

As a result, oddsmakers have favored Iowa State by just 4.5 points against a Kentucky team that returned a few players from last season’s Sweet 16 run.

Can the Wildcats pull off an upset and become a potential Cinderella?

Here’s a look at the odds from the best betting sites, a player to watch and my prediction for this second-round battle.

Kentucky vs. Iowa State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Kentucky +4.5 (-105)
Iowa State -4.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Kentucky: +180
Iowa State: -218

Total

145.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Kentucky vs. Iowa State How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 22
Time: 2:45 p.m. EST
Venue: Enterprise Center
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Kentucky record: 22-13
Iowa State record: 28-7

Kentucky vs. Iowa State Key Player to Watch

Otega Oweh, Guard, Kentucky

Senior guard Oteg Oweh has been one of the best scorers in the country this season, and he showed why in the first round against Santa Clara.

Oweh finished with 35 points, and he’s scored 21 or more points in four of his last five games, including multiple games with over 20 points in the SEC Tournament.

Overall, Oweh is averaging 18.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game while shooting 46.3 percent from the field and 33.8 percent from 3. This Kentucky team is going to go as far as Oweh takes it, and he’s already posted a signature NCAA Tournament performance in 2026.

Kentucky vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

The loss of Jefferson is big for the Cyclones, but I think this line has shifted way too far towards Kentucky in this matchup.

The Wildcats really struggled with a Santa Clara team that was third in the WCC in the regular season, while the Cyclones were a top-10 team for a good chunk of the 2025-26 season.

Iowa State is the No. 6 team in KenPom, ranking 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency and fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency. It also is an elite 3-point shooting team, ranking seventh in the country in 3-point percentage.

The Wildcats are extremely reliant on Oweh, and it may be tough for him to take over a game against one of the five-best defenses in the country. The Wildcats are just 5-6 against the spread as underdogs in the 2025-26 season, and they rank outside the top-25 in both adjusted offensive efficiency (37th) and adjusted defensive efficiency (27th).

Iowa State has been solid against the spread all season long – 21-13-1 – and I think it’s still the better team in this matchup.

Pick: Iowa State -4.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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