Kentucky vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Jan. 11

Kentucky couldn’t follow up a massive win at home against Florida last week, losing at Georgia on Tuesday night.

Now, the team heads to Starkville to take on a bonafide SEC contender in Mississippi State, who has made a leap on offense while maintaining its elite defensive principles. The Wildcats defense has been a point of concern for Mark Pope in his first season in Lexington, but can the team cover a big spread on the road?

Here’s our betting preview for Saturday night’s matchup.

Kentucky vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

Kentucky: +4.5 (-115)
Mississippi State: -5.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Kentucky: +152
Mississippi State: -184

Total: 161.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Kentucky vs. Mississippi State How to Watch

Date: Saturday, January 11
Game Time: 8:30 PM EST
Venue: Humphrey Coliseum
How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
Kentucky Record: 13-2
Mississippi State Record: 13-2

Kentucky vs. Mississippi State Key Players to Watch

Kentucky

Lamont Butler: Butler poured in a game high 20 points in the loss at Georgia, racking up four steals in the process, but the Wildcats offense couldn’t get it going from distance in the loss. Butler has thrived in a more offensive-minded group in Kentucky after transferring from San Diego State, averaging 14 points on 57% shooting from the field.

Mississippi State

Josh Hubbard: The sophomore guard had a quiet game on the road against Vanderbilt, scoring a season low nine points, but did contribute five assists in the defensive-minded win. Hubbard has improved his consistency across the board, upping his assist rate five percent from his freshman season and improving his effective field goal mark by five percent as well.

Kentucky vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

Both offenses like to hunt for transition opportunities off of misses, but each side may meet some resistance with elite transition denial defenses.

If this game is played in the half court, both offenses have some schematic advantages, namely by using its off-ball movement to unlock shots at the rim. Both defenses have struggled to contain cut based actions which can lead to plenty of easy scoring chances for both teams.

Kentucky is an elite offense, 33rd in effective field goal percentage and has the lowest turnover rate in the country. I believe that the team can find answers against the Mississippi State defense that shuts off the interior for its opponents for the most part. After a poor ball handling night against Georgia (18% TO rate) and poor shooting from the perimeter (24%), I believe we see some positive regression for the Wildcats side.

However, the team will struggle to slow down the Bulldogs offense, who will be willing to get into an up-tempo affair on offense. Kentucky has struggled to turn opponents over which can lead to an aggressive game from Hubbard as he skates into the teeth of the UK defense. Kentucky is 201st in mid-range field goal percentage allowed and 189th in field goal percentage allowed at the rim, per Haslametrics.

Kentucky has been prone to track meets this season, and despite an elite defense, I believe Mississippi State will oblige in this one.

PICK: OVER 161.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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