Kentucky vs. Texas Prediction, Odds, Key Player for Women's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Madison Booker and the No. 1-seeded Texas Longhorns cruised through the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, beating the No. 8-seeded Oregon Ducks by 42 points in the second round.

Texas is a clear contender to win the national title, and it’ll face a familiar opponent in the Sweet 16. Another SEC team – the No. 5-seeded Kentucky Wildcats – are waiting for the Longhorns after pulling off a one-point win against No. 4 West Virginia in the Round of 32.

The Wildcats are not nearly as dangerous as they were last season with WNBA draft pick Georgia Amoore, but Kentucky played well against Texas, South Carolina and Vanderbilt in SEC play.

The Wildcats lost their lone matchup with the Longhorns by 11 points, yet they are 14.5-point underdogs in this Sweet 16 battle.

Can Texas continue its dominance and March and advance to the Elite 8 with a convincing win?

Here’s a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for Saturday’s Sweet 16 matchup.

Kentucky vs. Texas Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Kentucky +14.5 (-110)
Texas -14.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Kentucky: +980
Texas: -2200

Total

131.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Kentucky vs. Texas How to Watch

Date: Saturday, March 28
Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Dickies Arena
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Kentucky record: 25-10
Texas record: 33-3

Kentucky vs. Texas Key Player to Watch

Madison Booker, Forward, Texas

One of the best offensive players in the country, Texas junior Madison Booker is averaging 19.3 points and 6.7 rebounds per game to lead the Longhorns.

Booker is shooting 52.2 percent from the field and 31.9 percent from beyond the arc, and she had 40 points in the Round of 32 win over Oregon.

However, two teams held Booker to less than 10 points in a game this season, and one of them was the Kentucky Wildcats, who held her to eight points on 1-of-6 shooting. Booker will have to play better than that in this meeting if Texas is going to cover this massive spread.

Kentucky vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

Kentucky has hung tough with the best teams in the country this season, losing to Vanderbilt by one and two points, Texas by 11 points and South Carolina by four points before a 23-point loss to the Gamecocks in the SEC Tournament.

The Wildcats also beat LSU and Louisville – two teams that also made the Sweet 16 this season.

Despite that, oddsmakers aren’t giving the Wildcats much respect in this game.

Even though Kentucky is a No. 5 seed, it is the No. 9 team in Bart Torvik’s latest rankings, posting the 10th-best adjusted offensive efficiency and the No. 14 adjusted defensive efficiency in the country.

Texas ranks fifth and second in those categories, but Bart Torvik’s model has the Longhorns as just 12.5-point favorites in this game.

Texas has dominated early in the NCAA Tournament, but it may have trouble pulling away from a Kentucky team that is 44th in 3-point rate and 78th in 3-point percentage this season. If there’s one weakness for this Longhorns team on offense, it’s that it doesn’t shoot many 3s (363rd in 3-point rate) despite knocking down 34.5 percent of them this season.

Kentucky covered this number in a game at Texas earlier this season, which gives me a lot of confidence that the Wildcats can hang around in this Sweet 16 game. This season, Kentucky only has one loss – in the SEC Tournament against South Carolina – by 15 or more points.

I’ll take the points, even though the Longhorns likely will come out on top.

Pick: Kentucky +14.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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