Lakers vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 1

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder open the conference semifinals on Tuesday night against the Los Angeles Lakers, and they’re set as 15.5-point favorites at home.

OKC had a long layoff after sweeping the Phoenix Suns in the first round, but the Lakers are expected to be without Luka Doncic (out for Game 1) early in this series. That has led to the Lakers being set as +900 underdogs to advance to the Western Conference Finals.

Meanwhile, OKC has listed Jalen Williams as out for Game 1 with a hamstring injury of his own. Williams missed the end of the Suns series, but the Thunder have played quite a few games without him this season, going 39-10 in 49 regular-season matchups.

OKC posted the second-best net rating of any team in the first round of the playoffs, and it remains the odds-on favorite to win the title. Meanwhile, the Lakers pulled off a major upset against the Kevin Durant-less Houston Rockets, and LeBron James and Austin Reaves are a formidable duo to have in a playoff series.

The only problem? L.A. was 0-4 against the Thunder in the regular season with three losses by 29 or more points.

So, it makes sense that OKC is heavily favored with Doncic on the shelf for Tuesday’s matchup.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Game 1.

Lakers vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Lakers +15.5 (-110)
Thunder -15.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Lakers: +675
Thunder: -1050

Total

213.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Lakers vs. Thunder How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, May 5
Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Paycom Center
How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
Series: Tied 0-0

Lakers vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Lakers Injury Report

Luka Doncic -- out

Thunder Injury Report

Thomas Sorber -- out
Jalen Williams -- out

Lakers vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points (-174)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why SGA could have a big game to open this series:

Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points per game in the regular season, and he dominated against Phoenix in the first round, scoring 31 or more points in the final three games of the series.

The star guard is going to get all the shots he can handle, and he was ultra-efficient against the Suns, knocking down 55.1 percent of his shots from the field. The Lakers don’t have a ton of great guard defenders after Marcus Smart, and SGA easily scored over 20 points in all three of his meetings with them – even though OKC won most of those games in blowouts.

Since the Thunder are likely to give the reigning MVP a longer leash in the playoffs, I like moving his points prop down from 31.5 to 30-plus in Game 1.

SGA has averaged 30.2, 29.9 and 33.8 points per game over his last three playoff runs (including this season).

Lakers vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

The Lakers played a ton of low-scoring games in the first round, and now they take on an OKC defense that is the best in the NBA this season.

The Thunder held the Phoenix Suns to an offensive rating of 109.0 in the first round, yet the Lakers actually had a worse offensive rating against Houston (107.4).

With Doncic out of the lineup, L.A. is in big trouble in this matchup. It scored 96 or fewer points in three of the regular-season meetings between these teams, and two of those games fell short of 213.5 combined points.

Now, the Lakers played very well defensively in the first round, and they played at the slowest pace in the NBA. That may be the only way L.A. can win without Doncic, so I wouldn’t be shocked if this game turns into a bit of a slog in the half court.

Rather than lay double digits with the Thunder, the UNDER is a safer play in Game 1.

Pick: UNDER 213.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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