Lakers vs. Thunder Series Prediction, Odds, Best Bets for NBA Playoffs (Expect a Quick Series?)

After a long stretch of off days, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder will continue their title defense this week when the second round of the playoffs begins for them against the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Lakers were major underdogs in the first round against the Houston Rockets, but they weathered the storm without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves (for the first four games) to win the series in six games. Doncic has yet to return to action – and is expected to miss at least some of this series – putting the Lakers in the underdog role again in the Western Conference semifinals.

Meanwhile, the Thunder are coming off an easy sweep of the Phoenix Suns, ranking second in the first round of the playoffs in net rating. Jalen Williams (hamstring) went down in that series, which could make things tougher on the Thunder going forward.

Still, SGA and company dominated the Lakers in the regular season, winning three matchups by 29 or more points in an easy 4-0 sweep.

It’s hard to count out LeBron James in the playoffs, especially now that Reaves is back in action, but he’s facing a monumental task against the defending champs, who are the odds-on favorites to win the title.

Here’s a look at all the series markets and my prediction for this matchup in the Western Conference semis.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Lakers vs. Thunder Series Odds

Lakers: +900
Thunder: -1600

The Thunder are gigantic favorites in this series, and it’s hard to fault oddsmakers for putting them in this spot with Doncic up in the air for the start of the series. Sure, the Lakers were able to beat the Kevin Durant-less Rockets, but the defending champs are a totally different class in the second round.

Lakers vs. Thunder Series Correct Score

Thunder in 4: +120
Thunder in 5: +205
Thunder in 6: +650
Thunder in 7: +700
Lakers in 7: +2200
Lakers in 6: +2500
Lakers in 5: +7000
Lakers in 4: +10000

OKC is favored to pull off a sweep in this series, while the Lakers’ most likely outcome is in seven games. The more games this series goes, the better for Los Angeles, as it would give Doncic a chance to return and flip things in the Lakers’ favor.

Lakers vs. Thunder Series Spread

Lakers +2.5 (+220)
Thunder -2.5 (-290)

The series spread is usually 1.5 or 2.5 games, but this series is 2.5 and heavily juiced to the Thunder winning in four or five games.

Lakers vs. Thunder Series Total Games

5.5 (Over +220/Under -275)

Sticking with the theme of these other markets, oddsmakers are expecting a quick series. Based on the -275 odds, there is an implied probability of 73.33 percent that this series goes five games or less.

Lakers vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

I’ll be honest, I’m kicking myself for not betting on the Lakers in the first round against Houston, as James clearly has more left in the tank than many people wanted to give him credit for – and I’ll take accountability for being wrong there.

However, in the second round, the Lakers are facing an uphill battle if Doncic is out to start the series, and recent reports indicate that he’s unlikely to return until Game 3 – or later. That leaves the Lakers with limited offensive options against an OKC team that beat them by 36, 43, nine and 29 in four meetings in the regular season.

The Thunder have injury problems of their own with Williams missing the end of the first round, but OKC has more depth than the Lakers to withstand an injury. After all, the Thunder went 39-10 in 49 games without the All-NBA wing in the regular season.

OKC finished the regular season with the best net rating and defensive rating in the league, and it posted the No. 2 net rating in the first round of the playoffs in the sweep of the Suns.

I’ll give the Lakers a chance to pick up a game – especially if Luka returns – but the odds are heavily juiced in favor of a short series for a reason.

The Lakers’ offense sputtered at times against Houston, and this is a step up in class against a far more potent offensive team that has the reigning league MVP.

Pick:Thunder in 5 (-1600, +205 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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