Liberty vs. Sky Prediction, Odds and Key Players for WNBA Commissioner's Cup

The Liberty are road favorites on Tuesday, but can they improve their ATS record?
Chicago Sky forward Angel Reese (5) celebrates with Chicago Sky guard Marina Mabrey.
Chicago Sky forward Angel Reese (5) celebrates with Chicago Sky guard Marina Mabrey. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Liberty have won back-to-back games to move to 7-2 on the season, and they find themselves as road favorites in a WNBA Commissioner's Cup matchup against the Chicago Sky on Tuesday.

Chicago finally got rookie Kamilla Cardoso back in the lineup over the weekend, a great sign for it going forward. She finished her debut with 11 points and six boards in just 18 minutes of game time against the Indiana Fever. 

While New York is 7-2 on the season, it hasn’t been as dominant as it was at points last season, going just 2-7 against the spread and struggling shooting the ball from 3 – 32.0 percent (ninth in the WNBA). 

New York’s star power of Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu is tough to match, but can the Sky cover the spread as 7.5-point dogs?

Here’s a look at the odds, key players to watch and my best bet for Tuesday’s showdown: 

Liberty vs. Sky Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • Liberty -7.5 (-110)
  • Sky +7.5 (-110)

Moneyline

  • Liberty: -298
  • Sky: +240

Total

  • 152.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Liberty vs. Sky How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, June 4
  • Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Wintrust Arena
  • How to watch (TV): NBA TV
  • Liberty record: 7-2
  • Sky record: 3-4

Liberty vs. Sky Injury Reports

Liberty Injury Report

  • Nyara Sabally – out

Sky Injury Report

  • None to report

Liberty vs. Sky Key Players to Watch

New York Liberty

Breanna Stewart: The league MVP last season, Stewart’s numbers are down in the 2024 season, averaging just 17.9 points per game while shooting 43.7 percent from the field and 18.9 percent from 3. Stewart isn’t going to shoot this poorly from 3 for long, but the Liberty need her to get back to her 2023 production if they want to win a title in 2024.

Chicago Sky

Marina Mabrey: Marina Mabrey has been one of my favorite players to watch this season, taking on the lead role for Chicago in 2024. She’s averaging 17.0 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game while shooting 38.9 percent from beyond the arc. There are six Sky players averaging double figures, but Mabrey is the driving force right now. 

Liberty vs. Sky Prediction and Pick

The Liberty have the best offensive rating and the third-best defensive rating in the WNBA, yet they have not been able to cover the spread at a high rate for bettors.

Part of the reason for that is due to oddsmakers setting the Liberty as massive favorites night in and night out, but New York hasn’t gotten the dominant performances it’s used to from Stewart and Ionescu, who are both shooting much worse than they did last season from beyond the arc.

The addition of Cardoso gives Chicago yet another body down low, and the Sky have been a balanced team so far in 2024. They rank sixth in the league in net rating and are 4-3 against the spread, including a 2-1 ATS record at home. 

Chicago’s defense is No. 5 in the WNBA, and I think it can keep the Liberty in check in this one. Don’t forget, Chicago upset New York in New York earlier this season by nine points.

I’ll gladly take the points until the Liberty prove to us they can cover as a favorite. 

Pick: Sky +7.5 (-110)


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.


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Peter Dewey

PETER DEWEY

Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.