Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction, Odds for Australian Open Quarterfinals

The No. 4 and No. 5 seeds took care of business in the first four rounds to set up a big matchup in the Australian Open Quarterfinals.

Lorenzo Musetti has dropped just three sets through four rounds, needing four sets in the opener and a five-set thriller in the third round before taking down Taylor Fritz in straight sets to reach the quarterfinals.

Novak Djokovic has yet to lose a set this tournament, although he didn’t need to play the last round as his opponent withdrew. Still, Djokovic only lost seven games in each of his first two matches and then 13 in his third round matchup.

Djokovic has won 9 of 10 head-to-head matches against Musetti, including in the Athens final last year on an indoor hard surface.

Here’s a breakdown of Tuesday night’s match, including the latest odds, each player’s Australian Open history, and my prediction.

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Lorenzo Musetti: +229
Novak Djokovic: -286

Total

38.5 (Over -125/Under -120)

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Jan. 27
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN Unlimited

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic Australian Open History

Lorenzo Musetti

This is the farthest that Musetti has ever made it in the Australian Open. He reached the third round last year, the second round the year before, and was eliminated in the first round in the two prior tournaments.

Musetti is now 9-6 in Australian Open matches in his career.

Novak Djokovic

The Australian Open has been Djokovic’s tournament. He’s won 10 Australian Open titles in his career, by far the most all-time. He hasn’t won since 2023, though, losing in the semifinals in the last two years after four straight titles.

Djokovic has an incredible 102-8 record in Australian Open matches, winning more titles than defeats suffered at the tournament.

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction and Pick

Djokovic should be able to win and advance to the semifinals yet again, but this price is too high to simply take -286 on the money line. Perhaps Djokovic -1.5 sets (-140) could be a solid play, but I’m looking to the over in this one.

Musetti took one set against Djokovic in their last meeting, losing the other two sets 6-4 and then 7-5 on hardcourt. There were a total of 31 games in a best-of-three match, so a best-of-five match should easily get into the 40s.

Djokovic has yet to be really tested in this tournament. This should be a good matchup with Musetti giving Djokovic all he has.

Pick: OVER 38.5 Games (-115)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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