Louisville vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds, Key Player to Watch for NCAA Tournament 2nd Round

The Louisville Cardinals survived a late surge by South Florida and will now advance to the Round of 32 to take on the Michigan State Spartans, who blew out North Dakota State on Thursday.

Let's dive into the odds and best bets for Saturday's ACC vs. Big Ten showdown with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line.

Louisville vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Louisville +4.5 (-110)
Michigan State -4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Louisville +164
Michigan State -200

Total

OVER 150.5 (-115)
UNDER 150.5 (-105)

Louisville vs. Michigan State How to Watch

Date: Saturday, March 21
Game Time: 2:45 pm ET
Venue: KeyBank Center
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Louisville Record: 24-10
Michigan State Record: 26-7

Louisville vs. Michigan State Betting Trends

Louisville is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games
The UNDER is 5-1 in Louisville's last six games vs. Big Ten opponents
Michigan State is 4-2 ATS in its last six games
The OVER is 11-2 in Michigan State's last 13 games

Louisville vs. Michigan State Key Player to Watch

Jeremy Fears Jr., G - Michigan State Spartans

The Michigan State offense goes through Jeremy Fears Jr. as he leads the country in assists per game, averaging 9.2. Not only is he going to be important on offense in this game, but he's going to play a key role on defense. Louisville has one of the highest three-point shot rates in college basketball, so Fears Jr. has to find a way to defend the perimeter from start to finish.

Louisville vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

The numbers in this game are too close for me to back Michigan State laying 4.5 points. Louisville ranks 13th in the country in effective field goal percentage and 50th in defensive efficiency. By comparison, Michigan State ranks 70th and 39th in those two metrics.

It also should be concerning for Spartans fans that Michigan State's weakness is defending the perimeter, ranking 96th in opponent three-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 32.6% from beyond the arc. That's bad news when facing a Louisville team that's inside the top five in three-point shot rate.

I'll take the points with Louisville and root for a close game.

Pick: Louisville +4.5 (-110)

Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code offer to get up to $3,000 in bonus bets. Simply sign up, make a deposit, and you will receive up to $300 in bonus bets for losing bets for 10 consecutive days.

Follow Iain on X and Instagram

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!