LSU vs. Houston Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Texas Bowl

This game doesn't appear to have the makings of a barn burner.

Conner Weigman and Houston are favored against LSU on Saturday. / Chris Jones-Imagn Images

LSU put up a fight against No. 8 Oklahoma in its last regular-season loss and will face a ranked team in its home state for the Texas Bowl on Saturday. The Tigers will take on No. 21 Houston as a 2.5-point underdog in the Texas Bowl. The Cougars will enter the matchup riding the momentum of a three-game winning streak.

LSU fielded one of the SEC’s least productive offenses in the regular season after kicking off the year as a preseason top-10 team. The Tigers struggled to throw the ball and ranked dead last in rushing yards among their conference rivals. However, their defense was among the best with just 18.3 points allowed per game. The Cougars have made up for their middling offense on defense as well in 2025, so this could be a low-scoring contest.

Here’s our full betting breakdown ahead of kickoff.

LSU vs. Houston Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• LSU: +2.5 (-105)
• Houston: -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• LSU: +112
• Houston: -134

Total: 41.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

LSU vs. Houston How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, December 27
• Game Time: 9:15 PM EST
• Venue: Nrg Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• LSU: 7-5
• Houston: 9-3

LSU vs. Houston Key Players to Watch

LSU

Michael Van Buren: Van Buren hasn’t posted eye-popping stats since he replaced Garrett Nussmeier as LSU’s starter. The second-year quarterback is still developing, but has a chance to perform at a high level in a statement game. He’s thrown a touchdown pass in five of the six games he’s appeared in and his completion percentage is up from 54.7 percent to 64.2 percent since last season.

Houston

Conner Weigman: Weigman is having a career year. He set personal bests in passing yards 2,475, passing touchdowns (21), rushing yards (644) and rushing touchdowns (11) in his first season with Houston. His passing numbers might not stack up with the best of the best in the Big 12, but only two Big 12 running backs can top his rushing touchdown total. He's reached the end zone with his legs in all but two of the Cougars’ nine wins.

LSU vs. Houston Prediction and Pick

The Cougars have clearly been superior to the Tigers against the spread this year. Houston has covered in eight of its 12 games while LSU has only covered four times. The underdogs have been especially bad at covering in the back half of the season.

LSU didn’t cover in five straight games while giving up an average of 26.4 points per game before its latest matchup with Oklahoma. Its usually stingy defense struggled against ranked opponents and gave up big numbers on the ground on regular occasions.

Weigman has been more consistent than any LSU player on offense lately and has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in his last two games. His versatility can power Houston to win. 

PICK: Houston moneyline (-134 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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