March Madness Odds: Iowa's Upset Over Florida Dramatically Shifts Final Four Odds

There won't be a back-to-back national champion in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

The No. 1-seeded Florida Gators were stunned by the Iowa Hawkeyes on Sunday night, as Alvaro Folgueiras' 3-pointer in the final seconds gave Iowa arguably the biggest upset of the tournament.

Three No. 1 seeds remain in the field, but the odds to win the NCAA Tournament have shifted quite a bit with Florida out of the picture.

The South Region is completey up for grabs, as oddsmakers have set the No. 2 Houston Cougars as the favorite to make the Final Four, but no team is currently an odds on favorite. The same can't be said for any other region, as the No. 1 seeds still left (Duke, Arizona, Michigan) are all -120 or better to reach the Final Four.

Here's a look at the odds for each region heading into Thursday's Sweet 16 action.

Odds to Make the Final Four in 2026 NCAA Tournament

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

East Region

Duke: -120
UConn: +420
Michigan State: +450
St. John’s: +500

The East Region is a gauntlet but the Blue Devils remain favored after pulling away from TCU in their second-round matchup. Duke hasn't looked as dominant without Caleb Foster, but oddsmakers are still giving Cameron Boozer and company the edge over UConn, Michigan State and St. John's.

UConn and St. John's both pulled out impressive wins on Sunday, but oddsmakers seem to view the Huskies' date with the Michigan State Spartans as a true toss up in the Sweet 16. UConn is favored by just 1.5 points in the opening odds for that matchup.

South Region

Houston: +115
Illinois: +200
Nebraska: +480
Iowa: +750

Houston is the favorite in the South Region, but it has to take on the second-best team in the region (based on the odds) in the Sweet 16. So, does that open the door for someone else to advance?

The Cougars are one of a few teams that fit the criteria in KenPom that has produced 22 of the last 23 national champions. They rank inside the top-25 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency, and they back-to-back matchups to open the NCAA Tournament.

Now, the Cougars have a tough test against No. 3 Illinois, which is the clear No. 2 choice to make it out of this region. Oddsmakers seem to think that the winner of that game will be heavily favored over the Iowa-Nebraska winner in the Elite 8.

Midwest Region

Michigan: -175
Iowa State: +300
Alabama: +1200
Tennessee: +750

Michigan blew out Saint Lous in the Round of 32 to advance to the Sweet 16, and it remains a sizable favorite to make the Final Four. The Wolverines are the favorite to win the national title as well, even though Iowa State turned in a dominant second-round performance against Kentucky.

The loss of Joshua Jefferson (ankle) could be keeping the Cyclones down in this market. Meanwhile, oddsmakers believe No. 6 Tennessee has a better chance than No. 4 Alabama to reach the Final Four. That's a sign of how dominant Michigan has been all season long, and it's favored by 10.5 points in the Sweet 16 against the Crimson Tide.

West Region

Arizona: -150
Purdue: +240
Arkansas: +650
Texas: +1600

The Arizona Wildcats had some nervous moments in the second half of their second-round win over Utah State, but they eventually won (and covered) to advance to the Sweet 16.

The Wildcats are the clear favorite to make the Final Four in the West Region, but they have a tough matchup with the Arkansas Razorbacks and Darius Acuff in the Sweet 16. Meanwhile, Braden Smith and the Purdue Boilermakers get to face the only double-digit seed left (Texas) in the other side of the brackt in this region.

There could be some value on the Boilermakers to reach the Final Four this season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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