Marlins vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, Aug. 12

Sean Treppedi | Aug 12, 2025

Kyle Manzardo's bases prop is available for a reasonable price amid his hot streak at the plate. / Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

The Cleveland Guardians welcome the Miami Marlins having won five of their last six, closing the gap in the AL Central as their best stretch of the season continues. 

Miami arrives after dropping four of five to the Braves, falling back under .500 and struggling to maintain their pre-break momentum. 

Janson Junk (6-2, 3.97 ERA) will throw for Miami, who has been remarkably consistent with just eight walks in 70.1 innings and a perfect 4-0 road record paired with a 3.47 ERA away from home. 

Cleveland counters with Logan Allen (7-9, 3.96 ERA), whose 44 walks in 113.2 innings and elevated 1.37 WHIP have led to bouts of inconsistency, though his 3.40 ERA at Progressive Field has been a stabilizing factor in front of the home crowd.

Marlins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Marlins +1.5 (-188)
• Guardians -1.5 (+155)

Moneyline

• Marlins (+116)
• Guardians (-136)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-124)
• Under 8.5 (+102)

Marlins vs. Guardians Probable Pitchers

• Marlins: Janson Junk (6-2, 3.97 ERA)
• Guardians: Logan Allen (7-9, 3.96 ERA)

Marlins vs. Guardians How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, August 12, 2025
• Time: 6:40 P.M. ET
• Venue: Progressive Field
• How to Watch (TV): Guardians TV, FDSN Florida 
• Marlins Record: 57-61 
• Guardians Record: 61-56

Marlins vs. Guardians Prop Bet

• Kyle Manzardo (+100 at FanDuel)

Manzardo is batting .462 over his last five games with two home runs, a double and four RBIs, and has hit safely in four straight. At even money, this is a steal in my eyes. His hot streak is particularly relevant given Junk’s pitch-to-contact style — despite the low walk rate, he’s allowing nearly a hit per inning, and Progressive Field’s spacious gaps can turn hard-hit singles into doubles.

And Manzardo’s current run production isn’t just empty batting average; his slugging percentage over the past week sits well above .800, signaling genuine power and gap-to-gap hitting. Facing a right-hander in Junk, Manzardo benefits from the platoon advantage, and with Miami’s bullpen usually leaky on the road, late-game opportunities to tack on another extra-base hit are in play. 

Marlins vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

The Guardians are 9-2 in their last 11 games, finding ways to win despite an offense that ranks just 24th in MLB in runs per game. That success has been anchored by a bullpen that owns a 3.61 ERA, seventh-best in baseball, and has been nearly untouchable in high-leverage spots with Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith combining for 66 holds or saves.

Miami’s offense, while slightly better in raw scoring rank at 19th, has struggled against left-handed pitching with a .242 team batting average, a weakness that plays directly into Allen’s favor.

Progressive Field’s 0.972 run factor and .924 home run factor further tilt the matchup toward Cleveland’s style of run prevention, reducing the risk of a game-breaking long ball. While Junk’s control has been excellent, Cleveland’s ability to grind out at-bats and leverage its bullpen depth in close games gives them a late-inning edge the Marlins have struggled to match.

Add in Miami’s 4-5 record in Junk’s last nine starts overall compared to Cleveland’s four wins in Allen’s last five, and the Guardians hold enough situational and structural advantages to justify the play. It’s time to fade Junk in this spot. 

Pick: Guardians (-136 at FanDuel)

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