Maryland vs. Florida Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Reed Wallach | Mar 26, 2025

Mar 23, 2025; Seattle, WA, USA; Maryland Terrapins center Derik Queen (25) passes the ball against the Colorado State Rams in the first half at Climate Pledge Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images / Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

No. 4 seed Maryland gave us the highlight of the first weekend of the 2025 NCAA Tournament as freshman sensation Derik Queen hit a game-winning buzzer-beater to beat No. 12 seed Colorado State in the second round. 

The Terrapins are into the second weekend of the tournament, primed to face No. 1 seed Florida, who got a scare in the second round as well against No. 8 seed UConn on Sunday afternoon. Both teams avoided letdowns, and now meet in what should be an entertaining affair on Thursday night. 

Who has the edge between these two? Here’s our betting preview. 

Maryland vs. Florida Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Maryland: +6.5 (-105)
• Florida: -6.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Maryland: +230
• Florida: -285

Total: 154.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Maryland vs. Florida How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, March 27th
• Game Time: 7:39 PM EST
• Venue: Chase Center
• How to Watch (TV): TBS
• Maryland Record: 27-8
• Florida Record: 30-4

Maryland vs. Florida Key Players to Watch

Maryland

Derik Queen: The freshman hit the aforementioned buzzer-beater, which capped an incredible first weekend of the tournament. He combined to score 29 points and grab 21 rebounds with four assists and two blocks in the two victories. He will face a formidable opponent in Florida, who has plenty of size to challenge him, but can he continue to shine?

Florida

Walter Clayton: The Gators needed all of the First Team All-American’s firepower on Sunday, finishing the game with 23 points and five three-point shots to hold off UConn in a barnburner. The guard started slow but finished with a bevy of clutch shots to send the Gators to the Sweet 16. 

Maryland vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

This game will be among the most entertaining of the Sweet 16, and I’m going to side with the underdog Terrapins to cover the spread. 

Maryland doesn’t run a deep bench, but its starting five can go toe-to-toe with the No. 1 seed in the West Region as the group has the size to challenge Florida on the glass and around the rim while also having the shooting to keep up from the perimeter. 

The Terps are not as reliant on the three-point shot but are shooting better than the highly touted Gators from deep, hitting 37% of its shots from distance compared to the Gators 35%. Further, the Florida defense doesn’t pressure the ball as much as the Terps' relentless defense does. The Terps are top 50 in turnover percentage on defense against the Gators, who are below the national average at 192nd. 

Can Maryland win the shot volume battle? While Florida is known for its imposing size and rebounding prowess, the team is eighth in rebounding percentage, but Maryland is 74th and makes up for it by turning over opponents at a far higher clip.

I think this game is far closer than the number indicates with Maryland’s ability to match Florida in key categories like shot volume, shot efficiency and overall talent.

Now, Florida will be the best team Maryland has faced this season, but the team hasn't lost a game by more than six points this season, and I believe the group is talented enough to hang.

Take the Terps to cover.

PICK: Maryland +6.5 (-105, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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