Maryland vs. Illinois Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Wednesday, Jan. 21

Wednesday night college basketball action will feature a Big Ten showdown between one of the best teams in the conference and one of the worst.

The Illinois Fighting Illini are 6-1 in Big Ten action and are the No. 11-ranked team in the country. Tonight, they'll host the Maryland Terrapins, who are coming off their first win in conference play when they beat Penn State on Sunday.

Let's take a look at the odds and my best bet for this Big Ten matchup.

Maryland vs. Illinois Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

Maryland +18.5 (-105)
Illinois -18.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Maryland +1200
Illinois -3000

Total

OVER 149.5 (-110)
UNDER 149.5 (-110)

Maryland vs. Illinois How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, January 21
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET
Venue: State Farm Center
How to Watch (TV): BTN
Maryland Record: 8-10 (1-6 in Big Ten)
Illinois Record: 15-3 (6-1 in Big Ten)

Maryland vs. Illinois Betting Trends

The OVER is 11-5 in Maryland's last 16 games
Maryland is 5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. Illinois
Illinois is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games
The UNDER is 12-4 in Illinois' last 16 games
Illinois is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 games when set as the favorite

Maryland vs. Illinois Key Player to Watch

Keaton Wagler, G - Illinois Fighting Illini

Keaton Wagler leads Illinois in points (16.1), assists (3.8), and steals (0.8). He's the driving force of this offense, and he's also shooting 42.1% from beyond the arc. He's coming off four straight games where he's scored 17+ points. If Illinois covers the spread tonight, Wagler will play a big role.

Maryland vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

48.6% of Illinois' shots come from beyond the arc, which is the 25th-highest rate in college basketball. That's bad news for Maryland, which ranks 302nd in the country in opponent three-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 36.4% from beyond the arc.

One of the most important factors in a team covering a big spread is its ability to make the most of its possessions. Luckily for the Fighting Illini, they rank fourth in the country in effective possession ratio and 11th in Floor%, scoring at least one point on 55.9% of their possessions. Maryland is 233rd in that metric, scoring a point on just 48% of their possessions.

I'm not afraid the lay this many points on Illiinois on its home court.

Pick: Illinois -18.5 (-115) via BetMGM

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