Mavericks NBA Championship Odds Holding Steady Amidst Luka Doncic Injury Update

Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic has not played since Christmas Day when he injured his calf in a loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Doncic's injury has already knocked him out of the MVP race (he won't reach the 65-game threshold) and it's impact Dallas' odds to win the NBA Finals. While the Mavs are still among the top contenders in the league, they've fallen to third in the odds to win the Western Conference.

Here's a look at the latest timeline for Doncic and how his injury has impact the Mavericks' odds in the futures markets this season.

When Is Luka Doncic Coming Back?

Following Doncic's calf injury, ESPN's Shams Charania reported that the star guard would be re-evaluated in a month.

While that timeline puts Doncic at about a week away from re-evaluation, it was recently reported by TNT's Jared Greenberg that the five-time All-Star won't be ready to go when that timeline comes.

According to Greenberg, Doncic is still "weeks" away from from returning, but the Mavs do expect him to return before the All-Star break in mid-February.

Jared Greenberg on TNT says he’s told that Luka Dončić is still “weeks” away from returning but the Mavs are confident they’ll get him back before the All Star Break
— Mavs Film Room 🐴🎥 (@MavsFilmRoom) January 15, 2025

On Jan. 22, Charania reported that Doncic is targeting a return prior to the All-Star break for Dallas, meaning he could be back within the next two to three weeks.

That's a positive sign for Dallas, as Doncic's return would help it make a postseason push to avoid the play-in tournament in the Western Conference. The Mavericks made the NBA Finals as the No. 5 seed last season, so they may not be as concerned with seeding atop the West as some other teams.

Doncic has appeared in just 22 games this season, and Dallas has been able to stay afloat without him, winning 10 of the 22 games that he's missed in the 2024-25 season.

Dallas Mavericks NBA Championship Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

As of Monday, Jan. 20, the Mavericks are +1400 to win the NBA Finals, good for the third-best odds of any Western Conference team. Dallas is behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder. Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, New York Knicks and tied with the Denver Nuggets in the lastest odds.

While Dallas' odds have dropped into a tie with Denver since Doncic went down, oddsmakers clearly are still high on the Mavs with Luka expected to return before the final stretch of the regular season.

Mavericks Odds to Win the Western Conference

When it comes to the odds to win the Western Conference, Dallas is +700 -- behind Denver (+650) and OKC (+130).

Dallas knocked out the Thunder in the second round of the playoffs last season, and it has some of the athleticism down low in Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II to match up with OKC's young core. However, the Mavs could be a risky bet at his price.

With Dallas sitting in the play-in tournament mix, asking it to potentially win three playoff series on the road for the second straight season is a tall task. The Mavs are ninth in the NBA in net rating -- which should improve when Doncic is back -- but the loaded Western Conference may make it tough for them to make a major jump in the standings.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.