Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for NBA Play-In Tournament

A chance to play the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the playoffs is on the line on Friday night, as the No. 8-seeded Memphis Grizzlies host the No. 10-seeded Dallas Mavericks in the final play-in tournament game of the 2024-25 season.

Dallas is coming off an impressive win against the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday night, where it played at an elite level on defense – something that general manager Nico Harrison had to love.

Meanwhile, the Grizzlies nearly upset the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday, but instead they fell short and almost lost Ja Morant (ankle) in the process. Morant is listed as questionable on Friday, but he did say earlier in the week that he would play in this game.

Oddsmakers have favored the Grizzlies by six points in this matchup, and it’s worth noting that Memphis took each of the last three meetings between these teams in the regular season. Still, Dallas is a little more interesting now that it is healthier than it has been for most of Davis’ tenure with the franchise .

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup, including the latest odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction.

Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Mavericks +6 (-108)
Grizzlies -6 (-112)

Moneyline

Mavericks: +220
Grizzlies: -270

Total

221 (Over -112/Under -108)

Mavericks vs. Grizzlies How to Watch

Date: Friday, April 18
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: FedExForum
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Mavs record: 39-43
Grizzlies record: 48-34

Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Injury Reports

Mavericks Injury Report

Anthony Davis – probable
Kyrie Irving – out
Olivier Maxence-Prosper – out
Brandon Williams – probable

Grizzlies Injury Report

Brandon Clarke – out
Ja Morant – questionable
Jaylen Wells – out

Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Best NBA Prop Bets

Dallas Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet

Anthony Davis OVER 2.5 Blocks (+130)

Anthony Davis has at least three blocks in three of his last five games, including a three-block game in the play-in tournament and five and seven-block games over the final stretch of the regular season.

Now, he takes on a Memphis team that ranks 25th in the NBA in opponent blocks per game (5.5) this season.

The Mavs have a frightening defensive frontcourt to deal with, as Davis, Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford are all patrolling the paint. As a result, they blocked eight shots against Sacramento on Wednesday.

AD is averaging 2.2 blocks per game this season, and I think he’ll have a lot of chances to swat shots at the rim against the likes of Morant (who loves to attack the basket), Zach Edey and others on Friday.

Memphis Grizzlies Best NBA Prop Bet

Desmond Bane OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-135)

Earlier today, I shared why Bane is a great prop target in this play-in matchup in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points:

Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane knocked down five 3-pointers in the loss to Golden State on Tuesday night, remaining as hot as ever from beyond the arc. Bane is shooting 42.1 percent from deep since the start of March, averaging nearly three 3-pointers made per game.

I’m buying him to knock down three shots from deep – something he’s done in six of his last seven games – against Dallas on Friday.

The Grizzlies may be more reliant on Bane with Morant nursing a bad ankle, and the Mavericks haven’t been great defending the 3 this season, ranking 19th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.

Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Prediction and Pick

I also wrote up a pick for this game when it comes to a side in my column – Peter’s Points. After a dominant showing against the Kings, Dallas may be a little undervalued in the betting market on Friday:

There have only been two games since Anthony Davis returned to the lineup where Dallas didn’t cover this number or win outright – and they were losses to the Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers.

Memphis has not played well recently, ranking 17th in the NBA in net rating after the All-Star break, and the Mavs are entering this game with some momentum after blowing out the Kings – in Sacramento – in the No. 9 vs. No. 10 game.

Morant is likely going to be at less than 100 percent, which puts a lot of pressure on the Grizzlies supporting cast. Unlike Golden State – who Memphis dominated in the painted area and on the glass – Dallas has a ton of size to match up with Zach Edey, Jaren Jackson Jr. and others in the post.

In fact, the Mavericks blocked eight shots in their win over Sacramento and were flying to the ball all night long with Davis, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II.

Memphis may end up winning this game (it was 17-15 against the spread when favored at home this season), but I think Dallas can keep this matchup within two possessions. The Mavericks have a lot of playoff experience on their roster, and an argument could be made that a healthy Davis is the best player in this matchup.

This is too many points to lay with a Memphis team that has struggled against playoff-caliber opponents, beating just two teams that are over .500 (Dallas does not fit that description) since early February.

Pick: Mavericks +6 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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