Mavericks vs. Kings Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets NBA Play-In Tournament

Another year, another chance for the Sacramento Kings in the play-in tournament.

Sacramento is the No. 9 seed and hosting the No. 10-seeded Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night with a chance to play for the No. 8 seed – and potentially take on the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round – on the line.

The 2024-25 season has been a rough one for Dallas, as Nico Harrison traded away Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving tore his ACL, and Anthony Davis has played sparingly since the Doncic trade due to injury. Still, the Mavs could at least salvage the season with a playoff berth if they are able to win two games in a row.

On the other side, Sacramento traded away De’Aaron Fox at the deadline but was able to net Zach LaVine in the deal. While the Kings fell out of contention for a top-six seed, they still could end up in the playoffs. Sacramento won a play-in game last season before falling to the New Orleans Pelicans in the matchup for the No. 8 seed.

Oddsmakers have the Kings favored at home in this matchup, but neither of these teams has been significantly better than the other.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for this play-in tournament clash.

Mavericks vs. Kings Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Mavs +4.5 (-110)
Kings -4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Mavs: +160
Kings: -192

Total

215.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mavericks vs. Kings How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, April 16
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Golden 1 Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Mavs record: 39-43
Kings record: 40-42

Mavericks vs. Kings Injury Reports

Mavs Injury Report

Anthony Davis – probable
Kyrie Irving – out
Olivier Maxence-Prosper – out
Brandon Williams – questionable

Kings Injury Report

Jake LaRavia – out
Malik Monk – out

Mavericks vs. Kings Best NBA Prop Bets

Dallas Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet

PJ Washington OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-135)

PJ Washington is averaging 7.8 rebounds per game in the 2024-25 season, but those numbers have taken a little bit of a hit with Lively II, Davis, and Daniel Gafford returning.

Still, if Dallas wants to win this game, Washington is going to have to play a lot of minutes on Wednesday night.

He’s still cleared 5.5 boards in three of his last six games. This prop could be set at 6.5, so I’m betting the number more than anything when it comes to Washington on Wednesday.

Sacramento Kings Best NBA Prop Bet

DeMar DeRozan OVER 5.5 Assists (+105)

With Malik Monk banged up, DeMar DeRozan has been one of the primary playmakers for the Kings this season, and he’s thrived in the role. In 14 games without Monk, DeRozan is averaging 5.6 assists per game.

He finished March and April averaging 5.8 assists per game over a 24-game stretch.

Dallas is just 18th in the NBA in opponent assists per game, and I expect the Kings to rely heavily on DeRozan, LaVine, and Domantas Sabonis in this game. DeRozan has plenty of play-in/playoff experience, and he’s picked up at least six dimes in 50 percent of his games since March 1.

Mavericks vs. Kings Prediction and Pick

Does Dallas have enough offensive creation to win this game?

That’s been the question ever since Irving went down, and Dallas did not inspire a lot of confidence over its final 10 games of the regular season, ranking 23rd in net rating. It is worth noting that Davis sat out a bunch of those games, as did other key rotation players.

While the Kings should be favored at home, they did not have as many injury issues as Dallas and were still 20th in the NBA in net rating after the All-Star break, going just 12-15 straight up.

On top of that, the Kings are not a great team as a favorite this season in the betting market, going 12-16-3 against the spread when favored at Golden 1 Center.

Both of these teams have their flaws, as the Kings are a poor defensive team (22nd in defensive rating since the break), which is pigeon-holed into attempting to hide Domantas Sabonis’ lack of rim protection on that end of the floor.

Ultimately, I think neither team is truly good enough to just pull away on Wednesday. I’ll take the points with the Mavs since they are underdogs of more than one possession.

Pick: Mavericks +4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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