Mavericks vs. Rockets Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Friday, March 14

Houston is heavily favored at home on Friday night.

Houston Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr. is a solid prop target in this matchup. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Klay Thompson and the Dallas Mavericks dropped their eighth game in 10 tries on Wednesday against the San Antonio Spurs, and now they’ll take on a Houston Rockets team that has won four games in a row on Friday.

Houston, the No. 5 seed in the West, welcomed Fred VanVleet back into the lineup in Wednesday’s win over Phoenix. Even though they are still without Amen Thompson, the Rockets are set as sizable favorites against this shorthanded Dallas team.

The Mavs have been struggling just to field a full team of players, and they’re in danger of dropping out of the No. 10 spot in the West – even though the Suns and Portland Trail Blazers keep failing to take advantage in the standings.

Let’s break down the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Friday’s contest. 

Mavericks vs. Rockets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Mavs +12 (-112)
• Rockets -12 (-108)

Moneyline

• Mavs: +490
• Rockets: =675

Total

• 219.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Mavericks vs. Rockets How to Watch 

• Date: Friday, March 14
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Toyota Center
• How to Watch (TV): Space City Network, Bally Sports Southwest
• Mavs record: 33-34
• Rockets record: 41-25

Mavericks vs. Rockets Injury Reports

Mavericks Injury Report

• Dereck Lively II – out
• Kyrie Irving – out
• Daniel Gafford – out
• Anthony Davis – out
• Jaden Hardy – out
• Olivier Maxence-Prosper – out
• Dante Exum – questionable
• Kai Jones – questionable
• PJ Washington – questionable
• Brandon Williams – questionable

Rockets Injury Report

• N’Faly Dante – out
• Jack McVeigh – out
• Reed Sheppard – out
• Amen Thompson – out
• David Roddy – out

Mavericks vs. Rockets Best NBA Prop Bets 

Dallas Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Klay Thompson OVER 17.5 Points (-105)

Klay Thompson fell short of this line in his last game, but he only attempted nine shots after posting four games in a row of 14 or more shots, averaging nearly 20 attempts per game over that stretch. 

I expect Klay to be heavily involved in the offense tonight, as only PJ Washington (questionable) has been upgraded from out amongst the Mavs’ core rotation players. Klay has shot the ball well since the trade deadline, hitting 43.2 percent of his field goal attempts and 42.9 percent of his 3s. 

Houston Rockets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Jabari Smith Jr. OVER 12.5 Points (-130)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Jabari Smith Jr. is a solid prop target on Friday night: 

With Amen Thompson out with an ankle injury, Jabari Smith Jr. has seen a bigger role in recent games (playing over 30 minutes in back-to-back games) for the Houston Rockets.

Smith has scored 13 or more points in three of his last four matchups, and he’s taken 11 or more shots in five of his last six games. That usage should be enough to get Smith over this number against a Dallas defense that ranks 26th in the league in defensive rating over its last 10 games.

Mavericks vs. Rockets Prediction and Pick

It’s hard to trust this Dallas team with all of the injuries it is facing, so I’m looking to the total on Friday night.

Dallas is just 26th in the NBA in defensive rating over its last 10 games, and that’s led to a ton of high-scoring affairs. 

Dallas has combined for 220 or more points in seven consecutive games. It’s impossible to take much away from the first three meetings between these teams, as Dallas looks completely different due to all of the injuries.

Houston is a top 10 defense this season, but it has had a handful of high-scoring games this month, putting up 128 against the Oklahoma City Thunder and 146 against the New Orleans Pelicans. 

There is also an interesting trend with Dallas, as the OVER has hit in 21 of 33 road games for the Mavs – the third-best mark in the NBA.

I expect Dallas’ banged-up defense to struggle a bit tonight and push this game over the total. 

Pick: OVER 219.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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