Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Friday, Feb. 20

Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves open the home stretch of the 2025-26 season at home against the Dallas Mavericks on Friday night.

Dallas, which has lost nine in a row, announced that Kyrie Irving will not play this season as he recovers from a torn ACL. That is the final nail in the coffin for the Mavs season, as it’s clear they’re tanking for a better pick and not making a push for the play-in tournament in the Western Conference.

Cooper Flagg (foot) missed Dallas’ last game before the All-Star break, and he’s listed as out for this matchup.

The Timberwolves (the No. 6 seed in the West) are looking to make a push for a top-four spot in the standings this season, but they’ll need to avoid some of the confounding losses that they had prior to the All-Star break to get that done.

Oddsmakers have set the Wolves as massive favorites at home on Friday night, but can they cover?

Let’s take a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this Western Conference battle.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mavs +12.5 (-105)
Timberwolves -12.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Mavs: +470
Timberwolves: -650

Total

234.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves How to Watch

Date: Friday, Feb. 20
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Target Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Mavs record: 19-35
Timberwolves record: 34-22

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports

Mavs Injury Report

Cooper Flagg – out
Kyrie Irving – out
Dereck Lively II – out
Caleb Martin – questionable
Ryan Nembhard – doubtful
Miles Kelly – doubtful
Moussa Cisse – doubtful
Daniel Gafford – questionable
Max Christie – questionable

Timberwolves Injury Report

None to report

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bets

Note: These player props picks were made before odds were released and are suggestions based on past player performance.

Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

Julius Randle OVER Points

Randle is taking on his hometown team on Friday night, and he gave the Mavericks a ton of trouble in their last meeting scoring 31 points on 12-of-21 shooting.

The Timberwolves star is averaging 22.3 points, 7.0 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game this season, knocking down 49.2 percent of his shots from the field and 32.5 percent from beyond the arc. He’s scored at least 17 points in every game this month, giving him a pretty solid floor against a Dallas team that lacks frontcourt depth with Dereck Lively II out for the season and Anthony Davis traded to Washington.

I think Randle is worth a look to reach his season average or better on Friday night.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

So far this season, the Wolves have wins by 13 and 24 against Dallas, and the Mavericks have really gone in the tank over their last 10 games.

Dallas has lost nine in a row, posting a net rating of -8.1 over that stretch (26th in the league).

The Timberwolves are just 11-14 against the spread when favored at home this season, but there is a huge motivation factor going into this game.

Minnesota needs to win all of these games against sub-.500 teams if it wants to climb the Western Conference standings, and Dallas is looking to land a top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.

The Mavs are one of the worst road teams in the NBA (5-18 this season) while the Timberwolves are 22-9 against teams that are under .500.

I’ll trust the Wolves to come out of the All-Star break with a big win on Friday.

Pick: Timberwolves -12.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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