Mavericks vs. Warriors Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Christmas Day

The Warriors are heavily favored at home on Christmas.

The Golden State Warriors and guard Stephen Curry are favored on Christmas. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors will host an old friend on Christmas Day, as Klay Thompson and the Dallas Mavericks head to the Bay Area. 

Golden State is back to .500 in the 2025-26 season after beating the Orlando Magic by a wide margin on Monday, but it still sits in just the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference.

Dallas has not even been that good this season, going 12-19 through 31 games in the 2025-26 campaign. The lack of a quality point guard has certainly hurt Dallas at times this season, but the Mavs are exponentially better when star Anthony Davis is in the lineup. Davis has appeared in just 15 games, leading Dallas to an 8-7 mark in those matchup. In the team’s 16 other games, it is just 4-12. 

Cooper Flagg – the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft – is coming off a 33-point showing in an upset win over Denver on Tuesday, and he’s likely going to be a staple on Christmas Day for years to come. 

Dallas enters this game with just a 3-9 record on the road, and that could be an issue against Curry and company, as the Warriors (9-4 at home) have done most of their damage at Chase Center this season. 

Oddsmakers have set Golden State as a massive favorite on Christmas in the first meeting between these teams this season, but can Curry, Jimmy Butler and company cover?

Let’s take a look at the latest odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this Western Conference clash. 

Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Mavs +8.5 (-120)
• Warriors -8.5 (+100)

Moneyline

• Mavs: +280
• Warriors: -355

Total

• 227.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Mavericks vs. Warriors How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Dec. 25
• Time: 5:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Chase Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ABC
• Mavs record: 12-19
• Warriors record: 15-15

Mavericks vs. Warriors Injury Reports

Mavs Injury Report

• Max Christie – probable
• Moussa Cisse – questionable
• Dante Exum – out
• Kyrie Irving – out
• Miles Kelly – doubtful
• Dereck Lively II – out
• Dwight Powell – probable
• Klay Thompson – probable
• P.J. Washington – questionable
• Brandon Williams – probable

Warriors Injury Report

• LJ Cryer – out
• Seth Curry – out
• Al Horford – probable

Mavericks vs. Warriors Best NBA Prop Bets

Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Cooper Flagg OVER 29.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125)

Today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Flagg is one of my favorite prop targets on Christmas: 

I’m buying No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg in his Christmas debut, as he’s been on fire in the month of December.

Flagg is averaging 24.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game this month while shooting 52.7 percent from the field and 30.8 percent from 3. He’s knocked down five of his last seven shots from deep, a big step forward since he’s shooting just 26.7 percent this season.

In December, Flagg has 30 or more points, rebounds and assists in seven of his 10 games, and he’s pushed his season averages to 19.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. 

For a player that stuffs the stat sheet as much as Flagg, this number is pretty low on Christmas Day. 

Mavericks vs. Warriors Prediction and Pick

Golden State’s matchup with Dallas is a perfect spot for the Warriors to get back over .500, as they’re 9-4 at home while the Mavs are just 3-9 on the road.

Now, Dallas is much better with Anthony Davis in the lineup (8-7), but I’m still buying the Warriors to win a third game in a row on Christmas. 

Golden State has a net rating of +8.3 (seventh in the NBA) at home this season while Dallas is 23rd in road net rating (-6.2) in 12 games. On top of that, this Golden State defense (third in the NBA in defensive rating) is going to be a huge test for a Dallas team that has struggled all year scoring the ball.

The Mavs are 27th in the league in offensive rating and 23rd in points per game. While the Warriors are 22nd in the league in points per game, they’re in the top half of the league in scoring at home, averaging three more points than their overall season average. 

This is a major number to lay with the Warriors, so I also don’t mind the UNDER as a potential play on Thursday since these teams are both in the top 10 in the league in defensive rating. 

Still, Golden State has gone 7-6 against the spread with an average scoring margin of +8.0 at home. It should be able to cover on Christmas Day. 

Pick: Warriors -8.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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