McNeese vs. Stephen F. Austin Prediction, Odds for Southland Tournament Final

A trip to the NCAA Tournament is on the line in the Southland Conference on Wednesday, as the McNeese State Cowboys take on the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks.

These teams have been destined for a matchup in the Tournament title game, as they were the No. 1 (Stephen F. Austin) and No. 2 (McNeese) teams in the Southland this season. They split their two meetings with the Cowboys winning by two at home and the Lumberjacks winning by seven at home.

Stephen F. Austin failed to cover in the semifinal against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, pulling out a two-point win in a low-scoring affair. Meanwhile, the Cowboys went to three overtimes against UT Rio Grande Valley before winning by four points.

Will any fatigue follow McNeese into the Southland Tournament Final?

Oddsmakers don’t seem to think so, as they’ve set the Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites in the third and final meeting between these squads this season.

Here’s a look at the betting odds, a player to watch and my prediction as one of these teams aims to book a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

McNeese vs. Stephen F. Austin Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

McNeese -3.5 (-102)
Stephen F. Austin +3.5 (-118)

Moneyline

McNeese: -162
Stephen F. Austin: +136

Total

132.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

McNeese vs. Stephen F. Austin How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, March 11
Time: 5:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Townsley Law Arena
How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
McNeese record: 27-5
Stephen F. Austin record: 28-4

McNeese vs. Stephen F. Austin Key Player to Watch

Larry Johnson, Guard, McNeese

A freshman, Johnson has put up some incredible numbers in the 2025-26 season, averaging 17.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game while shooting 50.1 percent from the field. However, he’s knocked down just over 23 percent of his 3-point attempts.

Johnson had a huge game in the semifinal on Tuesday, scoring 27 points and grabbing 12 boards to lead McNeese to a win. Now, he takes on a Lumberjacks team that has held him to just 34.4 percent from the field and 23.1 percent from 3 in the 2025-26 season.

If the freshman has a big game, it could swing this matchup in favor of the Cowboys.

McNeese vs. Stephen F. Austin Prediction and Pick

The Cowboys may be favored in this game, but I’m not going to pass up a chance to bet on the Lumberjacks as underdogs.

This season, Stephen F. Austin has the best against the spread record in college basketball, and it has covered in four of five games as an underdog. The Lumberjacks aren’t an elite offensive team, but they rank 76th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and 30th in opponent effective field goal percentage.

McNeese has relied on forcing turnovers (No. 1 in opponent turnover rate this season), but the Lumberjacks are 22nd in the country in turnover rate on offense. Stephen F. Austin is also a far betting 3-point shooting team, ranking 37th in 3-point percentage compared to McNeese at 316th.

The Cowboys usually can swing a game in their favor by forcing turnovers, and they rank inside the top-80 in opponent eFG% and opponent 2-point percentage. Despite that, I am not buying them as 3.5-point favorites.

Stephen F. Austin may actually be the better team between these two Southland Conference powerhouses, even though KenPom has the Cowboys slotted 21 spots ahead of them, ranking them inside the top-100 in offensive rating and 50th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

McNeese needed three overtimes to knock off UT Rio Grande Valley in the semis, a team that Stephen F. Austin beat by 13 and nine in two meetings during the regular season. Plus, there could be a fatigue factor for the Cowboys having to play the next day after their three-OT battle.

I’ll gladly take the points with the Lumberjacks, who are a live underdog on Wednesday night.

Pick: Stephen F. Austin +3.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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