Mets vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Friday, May 15

Sean Treppedi | May 16, 2025

With a lot on the line against the Mets in Friday's Subway Series opener, Aaron Judge can be targeted as a key prop play. / John Froschauer-Imagn Images

Buckle up for the return of Juan Soto to Yankee Stadium as the New York Mets and New York Yankees begin their three-game Subway Series in the Bronx on Friday, May 16. Since Soto left to sign with the Mets last offseason, this year’s subways series carries a heavier narrative — especially with both teams leading their respective divisions.

Tylor Megill (3-3, 3.10 ERA) gets the start for the Mets, while Carlos Rodón (4-3, 3.29 ERA) will counter for the Yankees in a battle between two righties who have maintained consistency to begin the season. 

Both teams are burgeoning their way into this meeting with the Yankees having just taken a series from Seattle and the Mets having swept Pittsburgh. 

Let’s get down to business with a prop play and a prediction for the Subway series opener.

Mets vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Run Line

• Mets +1.5 (-175)
• Yankees -1.5  (+145)

Moneyline

• Mets (+110)
• Yankees (-130)

Total

• Over 9 (-105)
• Under 9 (-115)

Mets vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

• Mets Yankees: Tylor Megill (3-3, 3.10 ERA)
• Yankees: Carlos Rodon (4-3, 3.29 ERA)

Mets vs. Yankees How to Watch

• Date: Friday, May 15
• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): YES, SNY
• Mets Record: 28-16
• Yankees Record: 25-18

Mets vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

• Aaron Judge to Record 2+ Total Bases (-120 at BetMGM)

We can’t help but consider context when it comes to approaching lines for this game. When Aaron Judge recently said that Juan Soto’s departure from the pinstripes “definitely stung,” it’s hard to imagine a world where baseball’s best hitter will come up empty in the first meeting. 

Since the start of 2025, Judge is right back residing comfortably in the penthouse of the MLB across every major advanced hitting metric. He has a considerable lead over Shohei Ohtani in expected weighted on-base average, barreled balls per plate appearance and expected slug percentage. 

Judge carries plenty of momentum from this week as he has 12 hits in his last six games with three doubles and three home runs. 

Megill is susceptible to high exit velocity, relinquishing speed as high as 114.7 mph this season. 

And we can forget about the righty-on-righty pitching advantage here since Judge is simply immune to it: He is batting .400 against right-handed pitching with nine home runs in 162 plate appearances. 

Mets vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

On paper, this may just be game No. 44, but there is a lot more at stake for the Yankees here than the Mets. 

Carlos Rodon is pitching exceptionally to this point. He is striking out over 11 hitters per nine innings while ranking a top-10 pitcher in xwOBA, which estimates batters' run production based on contact quality. He’s supported with a top-top bullpen behind him averaging a 3.47 ERA

Beyond Judge, this Yankees club is getting more than sufficient support from Trent Grisham (.283/.367/.628) and Paul Goldschmidt (.346/.396/.506) to power itself to the No. 1 overall team in on base percentage. 

With the home field advantage, I’m looking for the Yankees to capitalize with these tools in the highest stakes that this rivalry has seen in decades.

Pick: Yankees (-130 at BetMGM)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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