Miami (Florida) vs. Florida Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 1

Arguably no team was busier in the transfer portal than Miami this past season, reloading its roster through the one-time transfer portal and building a roster that plans to compete for not just the ACC Championship, but also the National Championship in the extended College Football Playoff era.

The Hurricanes start its season on the road against in-state opponent Florida, who faces the most arduous schedule in college football this season. Despite a tricky set of opponents, the Gators are talented with returning quarterback Graham Mertz and a handful of key players returning like budding wide receiver Eugene Wilson.

Can UF hang with the Hurricanes at home as small home underdogs? Here’s our full betting preview.

Miami (Florida) vs. Florida Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

Miami (Florida): -2.5 (-120)
Florida: +2.5 (-102)

Moneyline

Miami (Florida): -136
Florida: +114

Total: 54.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Miami (Florida) vs. Florida How to Watch

Date: Saturday, August 31st
Game Time: 3:30 PM EST
Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Miami (Florida) Record: 0-0
Florida Record: 0-0

Miami (Florida) vs. Florida Key Players to Watch

Mami (Florida)

Cam Ward: The Washington State transfer flirted with the NFL Draft before opting to transfer to Miami in hopes of contending at the highest level. Ward has showcased a ton of arm talent, making 24 big-time throws per Pro Football Focus, while passing for 3,723 yards, but also has been prone to mistakes with 21 turnover-worthy passes last season. Can he translate into a talented roster that features the likes of running back Damien Martinez and wide receiver Xavier Restrepo?

Florida

Graham Mertz: The Wisconsin transfer played the part of a game manager last season. While he failed to stretch the field vertically, he was more than capable of running a high-level offense, completing 72% of his passes for 20 touchdowns and three interceptions.

Miami (Florida) vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

In oneOne of the most intriguing matchups of the opening slate of games, Florida will play the role of underdog against a highly touted Miami team.

To me, both issues come in the secondary as the Gators are fresh off a 2023 campaign that checked in 110th in EPA/Pass and forced only three interceptions last season. The team did look to replenish the secondary with the transfer portal, including DJ Douglas from Alabama and Trikweze Bridges from Oregon, but the team will have question marks here after such a dismal season.

However, the Hurricanes also may struggle against the pass. Miami needs to replace four starters in the secondary, including safeties Kamren Kinchens and James Williams in addition to both starting cornerbacks.

Both offenses have skill all over, and I expect each offense to find answers against suspect secondary play. This was a Gators offense that ranked top 30 in EPA/pass and should be much improved in pass protection this season with several starters returning. Meanwhile, Miami likely upgraded at quarterback and will hope to be improved on an already elite passing scheme that has similar tendencies that Ward thrived in at Washington State, ranked 24th in EPA/Pass.

If the spread hit a field goal, I’d side with the Gators, but I believe that we can see each team get into the mid-20s with talent on offense taking advantage of suspect play on each defense.

As it currently stands, I’ll grab the over 54.5 as my preferred bet on Saturday.

PICK: OVER 54.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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