Miami vs. Indiana Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for CFP National Championship

Iain MacMillan | 7 Hours Ago

Indiana is a 7.5-point favorite against Miami in the College Football National Championship. / Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The College Football National Championship is officially set, and the matchup is one that no one would have predicted before the season began.

The Miami Hurricanes, who were lucky to get into the playoff, will take on the No. 1-ranked Indiana Hoosiers, who are the undefeated Big Ten champions. Miami is seeking its sixth football national championship while Indiana is playing for its first.

Let's take a look at the odds and my best bet for next Monday's national championship.

Miami vs. Indiana Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Miami +7.5 (-105)
• Indiana -7.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Miami +265
• Indiana -330

Total

• OVER 48.5 (-112)
• UNDER 48.5 (-108)

Miami vs. Indiana How to Watch

• Date: Monday, January 19
• Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Miami Record: 13-2
• Indiana Record: 15-0

Miami vs. Indiana Betting Trends

• Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six games
• The UNDER is 8-4 in Miami's last 12 games
• Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. Big Ten opponents
• Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five games
• The OVER is 6-3 in Indiana's last nine games

Miami vs. Indiana Key Player to Watch

• Fernando Mendoza, QB - Indiana Hoosiers

The Heisman Trophy winner can cap off his unbelievable season with a National Championship on Monday. He has been extremely efficient in Indiana's two playoff games. He hasn't thrown for a ton of yards, but he has eight touchdowns and zero interceptions, while also using his legs in key moments to move the ball down the field. The mistake-free style of football is what brought Indiana to this point, and Mendoza is the prime example of it.

Miami vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick

Indiana is a near-perfect football team, and I'd be surprised if they don't run away with the win in this spot. They outrank Indiana by a significant margin in almost every area, while also facing tougher competition. For example, Indiana ranks third in net success rate while Miami ranks 22nd in that metric.

Despite having the Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback, Indiana is primarily a run-first football team, and that should work out for them in this game as they now get to face a Miami defense that ranks 79th in opponent EPA per rush.

Not to take anything away from Miami's Cinderella run, but they are simply outmatched in this game against a school that has figured out the recipe to succeed in the modern version of college football. Bring in experienced players through the transfer portal and play mistake-free football. The Hoosiers will cap off their season with an impressive win in the National Championship.

Pick: Indiana -7.5 (-115) via FanDuel

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