Miami vs. Ole Miss Final Score Prediction for College Football Playoff Semifinals

Predicting the final score of the Miami-Ole Miss matchup in the semifinals of the College Football Playoffs.

The Mississippi Rebels and quarterback Trinidad Chambliss are underdogs in the semifinals. / Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Two underdogs have made it to the College Football Playoff semifinals, but only one team can advance to the final on Thursday night.

Carson Beck and the Miami Hurricanes have knocked off No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 2 Ohio State in back-to-back weeks, allowing just 17 points overall in the process. Now, they’re favored as the lower seed in this semifinal game against No. 6 Ole Miss. 

Can the Rebels keep a storybook season going?

Ole Miss earned the No. 6 seed in the College Football Playoff, but head coach Lane Kiffin left the team to take the head coaching gig at LSU, leading to some serious questions on how this Ole Miss team would hold up.

Well, it blew out Tulane in the first round by 31 points, and it then upset No. 3 Georgia in the quarterfinals behind a monster game from quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who won the Division-II National Championship last season. 

Can the star quarterback make it happen at the highest level? 

Oddsmakers don’t have a ton of faith in the Rebels, but the Miami offense hasn’t exactly been great so far in this tournament.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, line movement and my score prediction for Thursday’s matchup. 

Miami vs. Ole Miss Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Miami -3.5 (-102)
• Ole Miss +3.5 (-118)

Moneyline

• Miami: -180
• Ole Miss: +150

Total

• 52.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

The spread for this game has held steady with Miami favored by 3.5 points, but the total has shot up from 51.5 to 52.5 ahead of Thursday’s kickoff.

Ole Miss has an explosive offense led by Chambliss, and the OVER has hit in seven of the Rebels’ games this season while the UNDER is 9-5 in Miami’s matchups. Miami combined for just 38 points in the quarterfinals and 13 points in the first round. 

Miami vs. Ole Miss Final Score Prediction

Even though Ole Miss would love to play an up-and-down game on offense, I think this total is way too high against a Miami team that is elite on the defensive side of the ball. 

The Hurricanes are 18th in the country in EPA/Play and 17th in defensive success rate. They’ve allowed just 17 points in the College Football Playoff so far and scored a defensive touchdown against No. 2 Ohio State in the semifinals. 

So, I wouldn’t be shocked if offense is at a premium in this game, especially since Ole Miss is 20th in EPA/Play defensively this season. 

Ultimately, I think this game comes down to which quarterback can put together sustained scoring drives, and Chambliss is by far my pick. Beck has been up and down this season, and he’s thrown for just 103 and 138 yards in his two playoff games.

Miami is going to try to win this game with defense, but Chambliss has shown again and again that he’s one of the better quarterbacks in the country. 

After upsetting Georgia – another elite defense – in the quarterfinals, I wouldn’t be shocked if Ole Miss picks up another win on Thursday night. The Rebels are playing with house money since everyone has doubted them since Lane Kiffin left, and the weakest part of their team (run defense) happens to be where Miami struggles the most on offense (105th in EPA/Rush).

I’m buying Ole Miss to pull off the upset in this game. 

Final Score Prediction: Ole Miss 24, Miami 17

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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