Michigan State vs. Indiana Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 8

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Michigan State vs. Indiana matchup in Week 8 of the college football season.

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza is third in the odds to win the Heisman. / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

The Indiana Hoosiers have jumped to No. 3 in the country after knocking off the Oregon Ducks in Week 7, and they’re now massive favorites in Week 8 against Michigan State.

The Spartans are 3-3 in the 2025 season, but they’ve lost three games in a row to USC, Nebraska and UCLA. 

As a result, oddsmakers have set the Hoosiers as 27.5-point favorites at home in this game.

Fernando Mendoza is in the mix to win the Heisman this season, jumping to third in the odds after beating Dante Moore and the Ducks head-to-head in Week 7. However, this is a massive spread for Curt Cignetti’s team to cover, even though it ranks No. 2 in the country in EPA/Play this season.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this Big Ten showdown. 

Michigan State vs. Indiana Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Michigan State +27.5 (-115)
• Indiana -27.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Michigan State: +1700
• Indiana: -4500

Total

• 52.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Michigan State vs. Indiana How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 18 
• Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Memorial Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock
• Michigan State record: 3-3
• Indiana record: 6-0

Michigan State vs. Indiana Key Players to Watch

Fernando Mendoza, Quarterback, Indiana

This season, Mendoza has arguably been the best passer in the country, completing 71.2 percent of his passes for 1,423 yards, 17 touchdowns (which leads the Big Ten) and just two picks.

Mendoza also has 133 rushing yards and two rushing scores in the 2025 season, making him one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the country. 

This is a great matchup for Mendoza to have a huge game, as Michigan State is 123rd in the country in EPA/Pass on defense and 105th in defensive success rate. Mendoza has led the Hoosiers to three games with 56 or more points in the 2025 campaign. 

Michigan State vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick

This should be a cake walk for Indiana after a tough matchup with Oregon in Week 7. 

The Hoosiers are one of the most explosive offenses in the country, ranking 11th in EPA/Play and fourth in offensive success rate. The Hoosiers aren’t bad on defense either, ranking third in defensive success rate and fourth in EPA/Play on that side of the ball. 

The Spartans are just 114th in the country in Net EPA/Play, and they’ve lost by 14, 11 and 25 in their three games against Big Ten opponents. 

Indiana should be able to score at will against Michigan State, and the Spartans have fallen to 98th in the country in EPA/Play on offense after scoring just 13 points against UCLA.

I’ll lay the number with Indiana at home on Saturday. 

Pick: Indiana -27.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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