Michigan vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds for College Basketball on Tuesday, Feb. 17

A massive Big Ten clash highlights Tuesday night’s college basketball action, as the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines hit the road to play the No. 7 Purdue Boilermakers.

Michigan has just one loss this season – a three-point defeat against Wisconsin – and it heads into this game with an impressive 8-0 record on the road.

Purdue (21-4) has rebounded nicely from a mini three-game skid earlier in Big Ten play, winning four games in a row against Maryland, Oregon, a ranked Nebraska team and Iowa. The Boilersmakers have a Wooden Award candidate on their roster in guard Braden Smith, who is averaging 14.7 points and 8.9 assists per game this season while shooting 41.5 percent from 3.

The best part about Michigan’s season is that the team isn’t reliant on just one player to succeed. The Wolverines have eight players averaging at least 7.6 points per game this season, and they’re shooting 51.4 percent from the floor as a team.

As a result, Michigan ranks No. 4 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and has the No. 1 adjusted defensive efficiency in the country.

Can the Wolverines pull out a huge road win on Tuesday night?

Let’s dive into the latest odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Big Ten showdown.

Michigan vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Michigan -2.5 (-112)
Purdue +2.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Michigan: -162
Purdue: +136

Total

155.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Michigan vs. Purdue How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Feb. 17
Time: 6:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Mackey Arena
How to Watch (TV): Peacock
Michigan record: 24-1
Purdue record: 21-4

Michigan vs. Purdue Key Player to Watch

Braden Smith, Guard, Purdue

Michigan has an extremely balanced attack this season, but there’s no doubt that the Boilermakers are built around Smith, who leads the team in points, assists and steals per game.

This season, Smith is nearly averaging a double-double at home (13.9 points, 9.8 assists per game), and he’s shooting the lights out overall. Smith is knocking down 48.2 percent of his field goal attempts and 41.5 percent of his 3s, despite having to take some difficult shots for this Boilermakers team.

He was held to just five points in the team’s most recent win over Iowa, but he still pulled down seven boards and dished out 12 assists. While Smith’s points per game are down from last season, both his efficiency and assists per game are up.

If the senior guard can control the tempo of this game, Purdue may have a shot at an upset win.

Michigan vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

Michigan has yet to lose a game on the road this season, but its record against the spread may be a concern for bettors on the surface. The Wolverines are just 2-6 ATS on the road, but a deeper dive into those games shows there isn’t much to worry about.

Only two teams – Penn State and TCU – have kept games within single digits against Michigan on the road this season, and the Wolverines’ last three road games in Big Ten play have resulted in two 12-point wins and a 21-point win.

Now, Purdue is a massive step up in class compared to some of the other teams the Wolverines have beat, as the Boilermakers are No. 8 in KenPom’s latest rankings, posting the No. 2 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country.

Still, Michigan has been a better shooting team than Purdue, ranking sixth in effective field goal percentage (Purdue is 12th) while also posting some impressive defensive numbers.

Michigan is No. 1 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 2 in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage. The Boilermakers are just 19th and 121st in those two categories.

I am worried about Purdue getting enough stops to win this game against a Michigan team that shoots over 50 percent from the field, especially since the Boilermakers are just 4-9 against the spread at home this season.

I think Michigan is being undervalued a bit given its season-long dominance, but I’m going to stay away from the spread with both teams struggling to cover at a high rate.

Give me the Wolverines to win outright in this top-10 matchup on Tuesday night.

Pick: Michigan Moneyline (-162 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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