Michigan vs. Texas Prediction, Odds, Key Player for Women’s NCAA Tournament Elite 8

The No. 1 Texas Longhorns are looking to get back to the Final Four on Monday night when they face the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines, who are arguably the most impressive No. 2 seed in the country (and the only one left in the NCAA Tournament).

Michigan has played UConn, UCLA, Vanderbilt and other elite teams close this season, and the Wolverines rolled through their first three games of the NCAA Tournament, beating Louisville by 19 in the Sweet 16.

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Texas has been just as dominant, blowing out Oregon in the second round before hanging a 22-point W on the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday. Madison Booker and the Longhorns have just three losses all season long, and oddsmakers have favored them heavily in this Elite 8 battle.

Bart Torvik’s advanced projections has the Longhorns as a nine-point favorite in this game, so is there room for Michigan to cover? The Wolverines are the only team this season to keep a game within 10 points against No. 1 overall seed UConn, losing to it by just three in the regular season.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Elite 8 battle.

Michigan vs. Texas Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Michigan +9.5 (-108)
Texas -9.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Michigan: +390
Texas: -550

Total

138.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Michigan vs. Texas How to Watch

Date: Monday, March 30
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Dickies Arena
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Michigan record: 28-6
Texas record: 34-3

Michigan vs. Texas Key Player to Watch

Madison Booker, Forward, Texas

One of the best scorers in the country, junior Madison Booker is averaging 19.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game for the Longhorns while shooting 52.1 percent from the field.

Booker’s 3-point shooting is a bit down this season (31.1 percent), but she’s scoring 71 points in three NCAA Tournament games, including a 40-point game in the second round against Oregon.

Michigan ranks sixth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, so this is a great test for Booker and the Longhorns to see how their offense holds up.

Michigan vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

Texas has rolled through the NCAA Tournament so far, blowing out Kentucky in the Sweet 16 to advance to the Elite 8.

The Longhorns have one of the best offenses in the country, though they’re taking on a Michigan that is in the top-50 in the country in several key categories including, turnover rate, opponent turnover rate, offensive and defensive rebound rate and effective field goal percentage.

The biggest weakness for this Michigan team is its 3-point defense (199th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage), but the Longhorns don’t take a ton of 3s. They actually are 363rd in the country in 3-point rate, which should help Michigan hang around in this matchup.

The Wolverines have stepped up against elite competition all season long, losing to UConn, Vanderbilt and UCLA by just three points each. So, the Wolverines keeping this game within 10 points wouldn’t be a huge shock.

Olivia Olson is one of the best guards in the country, and she can go toe-to-toe with Booker in this matchup.

While Texas is a top-five team in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive and defensive rating, the Wolverines clock in at No. 9 and No. 6 in those categories. I think this spread suggests a wider gap than there actually is between these teams.

Pick: Michigan +9.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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