Minnesota vs. UCLA Prediction, Odds, Key Player for Women's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Lauren Betts and the UCLA Bruins have lost just one game all season, and they find themselves as massive favorites in the Sweet 16 against a familiar opponent – the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Minnesota is the No. 4 seed in this region, and it knocked off No. 13 Green Bay by 17 points before surviving No. 5 Ole Miss with a 65-63 win in the second round. The Golden Gophers played UCLA back on Jan. 14, losing by 18 points on the road.

Now, they find themselves as 19.5-point underdogs in the Sweet 16.

UCLA has cruised in the NCAA Tournament so far, beating Cal Baptist by 53 points in the first round before picking up a 19-point victory over Oklahoma State on Monday. Betts had 35 points in the Round of 32 win and is looking as dominant as ever for the Bruins.

Still, UCLA is being asked to cover a pretty major spread in a Sweet 16 game. Can it get the job done?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Sweet 16 matchup.

Minnesota vs. UCLA Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Minnesota +19.5 (-110)
UCLA -19.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Minnesota: +1300
UCLA: -4500

Total

130.5 (Over -122/Under +100)

Minnesota vs. UCLA How to Watch

Date: Friday, March 27
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Golden 1 Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Minnesota record: 24-8
UCLA record: 33-1

Minnesota vs. UCLA Key Player to Watch

Lauren Betts, Center, UCLA

This season, Betts is averaging 17.1 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game for the Bruins while shooting 57.3 percent from the field.

While Betts’s scoring numbers are actually down from last season, she’s really picked things up in the NCAA Tournament, scoring 57 points in two games. The star center was an insane 15-for-19 from the field in the win over Oklahoma State, and she had a double-double (17 points, 10 boards) in her lone meeting with the Golden Gophers this season.

Minnesota needs to find a way to slow down Betts, who it held to 7-for-13 shooting this season, if it wants to pull off the upset.

Minnesota vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick

I don’t think that Minnesota is going to end up pulling off the upset in this matchup, but I do think this spread is a little too much for UCLA to cover.

The Bruins did not beat Minnesota by 20-plus points at home during the regular season, and they would’ve failed to cover this line in the second round against Oklahoma State.

In addition to that, UCLA has 10 games this season that it won (or lost outright) by fewer than 20 points. That’s not a ton, but the Golden Gophers have shown they can hang around with the No. 1 seed.

Minnesota is the No. 11 team in Bart Torvik’s latest rankings, posting the No. 12 offense and the No. 15 defense in the country. Minnesota is going to have a hard time pulling off the upset, but it does three things that should allow it to hang around:

The Golden Gophers are fourth in the country in turnover rate.
The Golden Gophers are fourth in the country in defensive rebound rate.
The Golden Gophers are 27th in the country in 3-point percentage (35.3%).

UCLA is the No. 2 team in the country in effective field goal percentage, but defensively it doesn’t turn its opponents over, ranking 266th in opponent turnover rate. That’s a huge difference from a team like the No. 1 overall seeded UConn Huskies, who are fourth in the country in opponent turnover rate.

I think Minnesota can keep things within 20 points for the second time this season against the Bruins.

Pick: Minnesota +19.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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