Missouri vs. Tennessee Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Wednesday, Feb. 5

Tennessee scored one of its best wins of the season on Saturday, blowing out Florida at home as the team looks to find some consistency in SEC play.

The Vols have been shakier than expectations in league play and will now play host to SEC upstart Missouri, who has enjoyed a resurgent season and has positioned themselves for a long run to the top of the league standings. The Tigers are off of two wins against Ole Miss and Mississippi State, and will look to take down a third straight quality foe on Saturday.

However, Tennessee is a considerable favorite in this one. How should we handle this one from a betting perspective? Let’s break it down below.

Missouri vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

Missouri: +8.5 (-102)
Tennessee: -8.5 (-120)

Moneyline

Missouri: +340
Tennessee: -450

Total: 134.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Missouri vs. Tennessee How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, February 5
Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
Venue: Thompson-Boling Arena
How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
Missouri Record: 17-4
Tennessee Record: 18-4

Missouri vs. Tennessee Key Players to Watch

Missouri

Caleb Grill: Grill has worked his way back from a mid-season injury to be a key cog in the surging Tigers run. The floor spacing transfer wing has made 11-of-20 shots from 3 over the last two games in which he has combined to score 42 points. Against a Tennessee defense that is tops in defending the 3-point line, Grill will be leaned on to break through on Wednesday night.

Tennessee

Jordan Gainey: With Zakai Zeigler out on Saturday against Florida, Gainey took on a bigger role and showed out. The senior guard scored 16 points while dishing out four assists and racking up three steals in the team’s defensive minded win. The Tennessee offense has needed a spark, can Gainey lead a late season surge?

Missouri vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

There is a path to success for Missouri in this game, which has the second highest 3-point percentage in SEC play (39.9%) at the league’s highest 3-point rate. The team will face a Tennessee defense that allows the 21st highest 3-point rate in the nation, so the Tigers should feel comfortable getting shots up.

However, Tennessee is the best 3-point defense in the country, allowing defenses to shoot 26% from deep. Some of that is shot variance, but I’m inclined to believe that the sample size is big enough to trust this Vols defense is a lockdown unit that contests perimeter shots as well as anyone in the country.

With that in mind, I’m going to target the under as Tennessee has been more than willing to slow games down, playing at a bottom 15 tempo in the country according to KenPom.

The Vols offense has cooled off in SEC play, ranking 14th in effective field goal percentage as the team continues to struggle to find its form both inside and out. The team is a great offensive rebounding team, but that will be neutralized against a Missouri team that is second in SEC DREB%.

In a game that Tennessee likely controls, I’ll go with the under.

PICK: UNDER 134.5 (available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $200 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your new-user bonus today.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.