Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Dodgers-Astros, Padres-Giants, Fade Bryan Woo

There’s nothing better than a little afternoon baseball in the middle of the week, as several series are set to wrap up during a 15-game slate.

I’m targeting three of those afternoon battles in today’s MLB Best Bets column, including a pick for the rubber match between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros after Houston won Game 2 behind a gem from Peter Lambert on Tuesday.

Today’s picks have a little something for everyone:

A side in the Dodgers-Astros matchup
A player prop for an All-Star starting pitcher
A total between two NL West division rivals

Let’s dive into the odds and analysis behind each of Wednesday’s best bets.

MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, May 6

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-131) vs. Houston Astros
Bryan Woo OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+109)
San Diego Padres-San Francisco Giants First 5 Innings OVER 4.5 (-120)

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-131) vs. Houston Astros

Tyler Glasnow is on the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday, and he’s posted an impressive 2.56 ERA while leading his team to a 5-1 record in six starts.

The Dodgers are massive favorites against Houston’s Lance McCullers Jr., which means I am taking the risk on the run line this afternoon. McCullers is off to a slow start in 2026, posting a 6.32 ERA, and Houston is just 2-4 when he takes the mound.

There’s a clear advantage with the starts, as Glasnow is in the 93rd percentile in expected ERA while McCullers is in just the 42nd percentile this season. However, the biggest issue may be Houston’s bullpen, which is last in MLB in ERA (6.20) by a wide margin.

The Dodgers scored just one run in Tuesday’s loss, but I have a hard time seeing their offense coming up short against McCullers and company on Wednesday. It’s also worth noting that Houston is just 15-22 on the run line this season, including a pedestrian 10-9 mark as an underdog.

Bryan Woo OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+109)

Mariners right-hander Bryan Woo is off to a rough start in the 2026 season, posting a 4.61 ERA after back-to-back rough outings.

Woo has given up 16 hits and 13 runs over his last two starts, and now he has a tough matchup with the Atlanta Braves, who rank first in MLB in runs scored, OPS and batting average in the 2025 campaign.

So, I’m fading Woo and taking the OVER on his earned runs prop, which is set at 2.5. We’re actually getting plus money for Woo to go OVER this number, something he’s done in three of his last four outings.

The Mariners righty doesn’t have the best advanced profile this season, ranking in the 51st percentile in expected ERA and the 35th percentile in expected batting average against. So, I don’t see him completely turning things around against one of the best offenses in baseball on Wednesday.

San Diego Padres-San Francisco Giants First 5 Innings OVER 4.5 (-120)

Two struggling starting pitchers are set to take the mound in the series finale between the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants on Wednesday, so why not take the OVER in the first five innings?

Matt Waldron (9.88 ERA) is on the mound for the Padres, and he’s given up 22 hits, 15 runs and five walks in just 13.2 innings of work (three starts this season). Waldron does not have a single outing with less than three runs allowed, which gives us a pretty solid floor when it comes to this prop.

He’ll take on San Francisco’s Adrian Houser (7.12 ERA), who has led the team to 1-5 record in six appearances in 2026. Houser has given up at least three runs in all of his starts, and he’s allowed 42 hits and 10 walks in just 30.1 innings of work.

Both of these offenses have struggled to score this season, ranking 15th (San Diego) and 30th (San Francisco) in runs scored. Still, there is nothing we’ve seen from these starters in 2026 that suggests that they’ll turn things around on Wednesday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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