Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Phillies-Pirates, Blue Jays-Padres, Padres-Mariners)

Looking to bet on some MLB action on Sunday?

A loaded 15-game slate culminates with a Sunday Night Baseball showdown between the San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners – which I have a pick for – but there are a few other games to consider along the way.

One of those matchups is a dream pitching duel between Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler, as the Philadelphia Phillies (7-3 in their last 10) continue to skyrocket up the NL East standings.

Plus, there is an AL All-star starter that may be undervalued on the road as his team looks to get closer and closer to .500 this season.

Three games, three picks, including two teams to win outright on May 17.

Let’s dive into the odds and analysis behind the plays in today’s Walk-Off Wagers column.

MLB Best Bets for Sunday, May 17

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Philadelphia Phillies-Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 7 (-105)
Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-163) vs. San Diego Padres
Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-130) vs. Detroit Tigers

Philadelphia Phillies-Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 7 (-105)

Two of the best pitchers in the National League are set to square off on Sunday,so it’s only right that I take the UNDER in the Phillies-Pirates matchup.

Wheeler has been great in four starts for the Phils since coming off the injured list, posting a 2.55 ERA in four starts (3.51 expected ERA) while leading the team to a 4-0 record. Wheeler has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his starts, and he has only given up 17 hits in 24.2 innings of work.

So, he should be able to keep a solid Pittsburgh offense (sixth in runs scored, ninth in OPS) in check on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Skenes has been lights out since a rough Opening Day against the New York Mets, allowing more than one earned run in just one start since. In May, Skenes has thrown 16.0 innings (in two starts) allowing just four hits and no runs.

He’s improved his expected ERA to 1.85 this season, which ranks in the 98th percentile amongst all MLB pitchers. In fact, Skenes has pitched seven or more innings in three of his last four outings, allowing no runs in each of those three performances.

If he can keep that up, this game should go way UNDER on Sunday.

Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-163) vs. San Diego Padres

The Seattle Mariners are off to a slow start in the 2026 season, sitting three games under .500 heading into Sunday night’s clash with the San Diego Padres.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of MLB in OPS and runs scored, though the Mariners (16th and 18th in those categories) have hit the ball better than the Padres (22nd and 29th) so far this season.

So, I’m going to back Seattle on Sunday with George Kirby (2.84 ERA) on the mound. The Mariners are 6-3 when the young righty is on the bump this season, and he’s taking on Lucas Giolito, who is making his first start of the 2026 season.

San Diego is nine games over .500, but it actually has a worse run differential (plus-2) than the Mariners (plus-11) in the 2026 season.

I’ll gladly back Kirby in this matchup, as he has been just as good as advertised this season, posting a 2.88 expected ERA while ranking in the 83rd percentile or better in chase rate, walk percentage and barrel percentage.

Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-130) vs. Detroit Tigers

The Toronto Blue Jays have been awful on the road this season (7-14), but I’m buying them against the Detroit Tigers and struggling righty Jack Flaherty.

This season, the Tigers are 2-7 when Flaherty is on the mound, and the veteran has an expected ERA of 5.18 (19th percentile) Flaherty’s actual ERA is 5.73, and he ranks in the 19th percentile or worse in expected ERA, hard-hit percentage, walk percentage, barrel percentage, chase rate and average exit velocity against.

So, the Toronto offense should be able to find some success against him.

Meanwhile, the Jays have ace Kevin Gausman (3.86 ERA) on the mound in this series finale. Gausman has an expected ERA of 3.46 this season, a sign he’s due for some positive regression for the Jays.

Toronto has been a tough team to trust on the road, but the Tigers are just 2-8 in their last 10 games and have fallen to fourth in the AL Central. I’m fading them with Flaherty on the bump this afternoon.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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