Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Pirates-Cubs, Logan Webb, Astros-Mariners)

Saturday’s Major League Baseball action features a ton of great pitching matchups, and I’ve decided to target three of them in today’s MLB Best Bets.

San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb is my favorite prop target of the day, and he’ll look to slow down the Baltimore Orioles, who have been solid on offense despite an under .500 start to the season.

I also have a pick for the rivalry matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros late on Saturday night, as Houston looks to snap a five-game skid. Can it get that done against Luis Castillo and the Mariners?

There are a ton of ways to bet on Major League Baseball, and now that we’re in mid-April, there’s a lot more data to go off of this season to see just how good some of these squads really are.

So, without further ado, here’s a look at the odds and analysis behind my three favorite bets for April 11.

MLB Best Bets for Saturday, April 11

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook

Pittsburgh Pirates-Chicago Cubs First 5 Innings UNDER 3.5 (-120)
Logan Webb OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded (+122)
Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-149) vs. Houston Astros

Pittsburgh Pirates-Chicago Cubs First 5 Innings UNDER 3.5 (-120)

Two young starters face off in an NL Central battle on Saturday, as Chicago Cubs righty Edward Cabrera takes on Pittsburgh Pirates righty Braxton Ashcraft.

Both starters have gotten off to a fast start in the 2026 season, and I like them to keep these offenses in check in the first five frames on Saturday. These squads are tied for 15th in the league in runs scored through the first few weeks of games.

Cabrera was acquired in a deal with the Miami Marlins in the offseason, and he’s allowed just two hits (and six walks) in 11.2 innings of scoreless work this season. Meanwhile, Ashcraft has given up just three runs and eight hits across 12.0 innings of work (two starts).

If these starters remain anywhere near that on Saturday, this game should be low-scoring in the opening frames.

Logan Webb OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded (+122)

San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb tossed seven innings of one-run ball in his last start, and he’s rebounded nicely after a poor debut against the New York Yankees.

Webb has given up just 10 hits and four runs over his last 13.0 innings of work, and he only needed 92 pitches to get through seven innings against the New York Mets.

The Giants are off to a slow start and may want to keep their ace in this game with the Baltimore Orioles as long as possible since San Fran has a 4.40 bullpen ERA in 2026.

Webb threw 207.0 innings last season, and he’s led the NL in innings pitched in three straight seasons while leading the entire league in the statistic in 2023 and 2025. I think he’s worth a look at plus money to work into the seventh inning on Saturday.

Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-149) vs. Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have dropped five games in a row, and I’m fading them on Saturday night against the Seattle Mariners.

Seattle is off to a slow start in the 2026 season (5-9), and one may think that the Astros are a solid bet since they are in the top five in MLB in OPS this season.

However, I think the Mariners have the advantage on the mound with Luis Castillo (2.79 ERA) taking on Lance McCullers Jr. (3.27 ERA). McCullers only made it through four innings in his last start, and he doesn’t have much help behind him.

The Astros are dead last in MLB in bullpen ERA (7.08) while the Mariners are third (2.47). I think that difference is a major reason why bettors should trust Seattle at home on Saturday.

Plus, Houston is 1-6 on the road, which has propelled this recent losing streak.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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