Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Twins-Orioles, Mets-Pirates, D-Backs-Giants)

Breaking down the best bets for the MLB action on Wednesday, May 14, including a pick for the Mets-Pirates matchup.

The New York Mets are 7-1 when starting pitcher Clay Holmes is on the mound this season. / Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

Wednesday’s MLB action features a plethora of afternoon games, including a pair of doubleheaders for the Minnesota Twins-Baltimore Orioles series and the St. Louis Cardinals-Philadelphia Phillies series.

While I’m not betting on the Cardinals-Phillies matchup, I do have a pick for Game 1 of the Twins-Orioles clash with Bailey Ober on the mound against Dean Kremer.

Elsewhere in Major League Baseball, the New York Mets aim to complete a sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates, but can they cover the run line in the process?

I have a pick for that game and one other National League clash to help bettors get the most out of a 17-game slate on Wednesday, May 14. 

MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, May 14

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Minnesota Twins Moneyline (-102) vs. Baltimore Orioles
• Arizona Diamondbacks-San Francisco Giants OVER 8 (-110)
• New York Mets -1.5 (-125) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Minnesota Twins Moneyline (-102) vs. Baltimore Orioles

I’m eyeing Game 1 of the doubleheader between the Twins and Orioles on Wednesday, as it features a pitching matchup that we saw last week between Bailey Ober and Dean Kremer.

The Twins ended up pulling out a 5-2 win in that game, improving to 6-2 in Ober’s eight starts this season, but Kremer did not pitch poorly. The Orioles righty tossed seven innings of three-hit, two-run ball in the loss.

So, why back the Twins on the road in this one?

Well, similar to that last matchup, the Orioles bullpen is the unit to fade in this game. Baltimore is 27th in MLB in bullpen ERA (5.06) while the Twins are sixth (3.26) in the 2025 season. So, when both of these starters exit, I trust the Twins much more to keep the O’s in check.

Minnesota is currently on an eight-game winning streak, and Ober has really rebounded from a bad first start (he gave up eight runs in 2.2 innings), posting a 1.98 ERA in his last seven outings.

Kremer, on the other hand, has a 5.24 ERA for the season and has led the O’s to just a 3-5 record in his eight starts. Minnesota is a little undervalued as a road dog in Game 1 of this doubleheader. 

Arizona Diamondbacks-San Francisco Giants OVER 8 (-110)

After combining for 16 runs on Tuesday night in the second game of their series, the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants should be in line for another high-scoring affair on Wednesday afternoon.

Eduardo Rodriguez gets the ball for the D-Backs in this matchup, and he has a 6.86 ERA in eight starts, allowing at least four runs in five of those outings. In addition to that, Rodriguez has a 10.13 ERA over his last four outings, giving up 29 hits in 18.2 innings of work.

So, the Giants offense should be able to pounce on him in this game.

On the other side, Jordan Hicks has a tough matchup against an Arizona offense that ranks in the top five in MLB in OPS this season.

Hicks enters this outing with a 5.82 ERA, and he’s allowed three or more runs in six of his eight outings. So, it’s possible that this game could go over the total while these starters are still on the mound.

Arizona is also 28th in MLB in bullpen ERA, so I expect fireworks on offense throughout this contest on Wednesday.  

New York Mets -1.5 (-125) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Mets have a pair of one-run wins over the Pirates in this series, but Pittsburgh is still a dreadful 17-26 on the run line in 2025.

On Wednesday, I’m going to back the Mets to cover the run line with Clay Holmes (2.74 ERA) on the mound against Bailey Falter (4.36 ERA).

Pittsburgh has scored just four runs in this series, and it’s one of the worst offensive teams in MLB, ranking 29th in OPS, 27th in batting average and dead last in the league in runs scored.

While Falter hasn’t been awful this season, this is a tough matchup against a New York offense that is fifth in MLB in batting average against lefties and fourth in OPS. Plus, it’s hard to trust this Pittsburgh bullpen (4.32 ERA) to keep things in check once Falter exits.

Holmes, on the other hand, has allowed three or fewer earned runs in all but one of his outings in 2025, leading New York to an impressive 7-1 record when he takes the mound.

I expect the Mets to build on that mark on Wednesday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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