Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Mets-Phillies, Blue Jays-Astros and More)

Monday is a travel day in Major League Baseball, so only 16 teams are in action for a shortened slate that begins with the Patriots Day matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox at 11:10 a.m. EST.

Even though there are limited games to bet on, there are still a few teams I’m looking to target, including two AL East squads that are set as favorites at home.

In the American League, an intriguing pitching matchup in the Toronto Blue Jays-Houston Astros clash could be worth targeting as well.

Let’s kick off the week with some MLB winners!

MLB Best Bets for Monday, April 21

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

New York Mets Moneyline (-125) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Toronto Blue Jays-Houston Astros First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-154)
Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-192) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

New York Mets Moneyline (-125) vs. Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets starter Tylor Megill is off to a great start in the 2025 season – even though his team is just 2-2 in his four outings.

Megill has allowed just seven hits and three earned runs across 19.1 innings of work, posting a 1.40 ERA in the process.

On Monday, he’s at home against the Philadelphia Phillies, who are sending the struggling Aaron Nola (6.65 ERA) to the mound. Philly has lost all four of Nola’s starts this season, and he’s really struggled to keep hitters off the basepaths, posting a 1.66 WHIP.

The Mets come into this game on a four-game winning streak, and they hold the top spot in the NL East. On top of that, they’re one of the best home teams in baseball, going 9-1 straight up.

Still, New York is only a slight favorite against a Phillies team that is 4-5 on the road. This is an easy bet to make on Monday.

Toronto Blue Jays-Houston Astros First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-154)

Toronto starter Kevin Gausman and Houston starter Hunter Brown are both off to strong starts in the 2025 season, and I think that could lead to a low-scoring game in the early innings on Monday.

Brown has allied just four earned runs in 24.0 innings of work (1.50 ERA), posting a WHIP of just 0.83. Meanwhile, Gausman has a 2.49 ERA across 25.1 innings of work for the Jays, allowing just 15 hits across four starts.

Both of these offenses are in the bottom half of MLB in OPS, and the Astros (26th) are actually one of the worst hitting teams in the league right now.

With this first five innings total all the way up at 4.5 and the game total at 7.5, I think there’s a ton of value in taking the UNDER while both of these starters are likely in the game.

Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-192) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

The Atlanta Braves got off to a slow start in the 2025 season, but they’re starting to claw their way back in the NL East standings, thanks to a 6-2 record at home.

On Monday, the Braves host the St. Louis Cardinals, who have been downright awful on the road (1-9) to open the 2025 season. Not only that, but the Cardinals are just 1-3 when Erick Fedde is on the mound.

While Fedde has an ERA that is south of 4.00, his FIP is all the way up at 4.89, a sign that he could continue to struggle going forward.

Meanwhile, Atlanta has youngster Spencer Schwellenbach on the mound, who allowed just one run over his first three starts of the season before getting tagged for six in his last outing.

I’m buying Schwellenbach to bounce back here, especially since these offenses are on totally different ends of the spectrum over the last two weeks. In the last 15 days, Atlanta is third in MLB in OPS while the Cardinals are just 26th.

This should be yet another home win for the Braves on Monday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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