Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Nationals-Braves, White Sox-Reds, Blue Jays-Rays)

Breaking down the best bets for the MLB action on Thursday, May 15, including a pick for the Blue Jays-Rays matchup.

Kevin Gausman gives the Blue Jays an edge over Tampa Bay's Zack Littell on Thursday. / Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Thursday’s MLB slate is a light one, with just six games on the board—but there’s no shortage of betting value. 

The Washington Nationals aim to salvage a series split with the Atlanta Braves as Trevor Williams faces AJ Smith-Shawver in the finale. In Cincinnati, Bryse Wilson and Nick Martinez square off as the White Sox look to complete a sweep of the Reds. And in the AL East, Zack Littell takes the mound for the Rays against Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays in a rubber match. 

I’m targeting these three matchups for Thursday, May 15, each offering intriguing plus-money opportunities worth a closer look.

MLB Best Bets for Thursday, May 15

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

• Washington Nationals Moneyline (+184) vs. Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox-Cincinnati Reds OVER 9.5 (+100)
• Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+125) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Washington Nationals Moneyline (+184) vs. Atlanta Braves

The Nats head into Thursday’s series finale with the Braves as an intriguing underdog given the pitching matchup. With the Braves at the bottom of their rotation, I’m reluctant to back Smith-Shawver given how badly he’s struggled with hard contact, ranking in the 7% of pitchers in hard hit rate per Statcast. 

Trevor Williams’ numbers suggest positive regression. He carries an expected ERA of 3.89 in contrast to his 5.88 ERA. 

The walk disparity between these two is another key focus: Smith-Shawver is handing bases to 4.1 hitters per nine innings to Williams’ 2.61.

I also prefer the Nationals’ closing pitching with Kyle Finnegan carrying a 2.87 ERA and 13 saves over Raisel Iglesias’ 6.07 ERA and six saves.

This Braves offense hasn’t separated itself enough from the Nationals to go with the chalk here. They’re neck-and-neck with each other in wRC+ on the season, and, since May began, the Nationals rank 12 runs better. 

 Chicago White Sox-Cincinnati Reds OVER 9.5 (+100)

This is a matchup featuring two reeling starting pitchers with incompetent bullpen support behind them, adding to the potential for runs late in the game. 

Bryse Wilson has displayed diminished velocity and poor command, ranking in the bottom percentile across all major advanced Statcast pitching metrics and only striking out hitters at a 12.7% rate. 

Nick Martinez holds an edge with a 3.78 xERA, but he’s still finding his footing with a 1-4 record as the Reds have been comfortable letting him work deep into games until there is no juice left in the tank. He is looking to bounce back from a disastrous start against Houston where he allowed 10 hits. 

The Reds' offense, which has underperformed with runners in scoring position, is due for some positive regression. 

Cincinnati has dropped two straight to Chicago, but this matchup offers a prime bounce-back opportunity. Expect offense to take center stage despite the winds in Cincinnati.

Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+125) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

My final plus-money value play is the Blue Jays on the run line against the Rays, thanks to some clear advantages across the offensive and defensive spectrum. 

Toronto’s Kevin Gausman owns a 3.05 ERA over his last seven starts against Tampa Bay. Zack Littell, meanwhile, enters with a 4.40 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, but his advanced metrics tell a more concerning narrative: Littell ranks in the bottom 25% of the league in all of Statcast’s primary pitching metrics, such as expected ERA, expected batting average, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate allowed.

Tampa Bay’s bullpen has also struggled, sitting at 24th overall in WAR, while Toronto’s relief staff ranks within the top three. 

From a hitting standpoint, the Blue Jays hold a comfortable edge as well, ranking ahead of the Rays in runs per game, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Toronto’s hitters have posted a .306 average and .449 slugging percentage in 53 combined plate appearances against Littell. 

Add in home-field advantage and the fact that Toronto’s last seven wins have all come by two or more runs, and the run line becomes even more appealing.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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