Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Red Sox-Blue Jays, Jesus Luzardo, Phillies-Braves)

Thursday’s MLB action features just five matchups, but with a bunch of afternoon starts, bettors can wager on baseball all day long!

I’m targeting a pair of plays in tonight’s Philadelphia Phillies-Atlanta Braves matchup, which is the rubber game of this three-game set.

Elsewhere in MLB, there is a lopsided pitching matchup in the Boston Red Sox-Toronto Blue Jays clash as Toronto aims to pick up a four-game sweep on the road.

Here’s a full breakdown of my favorite plays for April 10.

MLB Best Bets for Thursday, April 10

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Toronto Blue Jays First 5 Innings ML (-105) vs. Boston Red Sox
Philadelphia Phillies-Atlanta Braves UNDER 7.5 (-120)
Jesus Luzardo OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)

Toronto Blue Jays First 5 Innings ML (-105) vs. Boston Red Sox

Boston starter Walker Buehler came up big during the World Series for the Los Angeles Dodgers last season, but he did not have a good regular season in his return from Tommy John surgery.

Now, Buehler is off to a slow start in 2025, and I’m fading him until further notice.

The right-handed pitcher has given up 14 hits, nine earned runs and three homers in two starts this season (9.1 innings of work), and the Red Sox are just 1-1 in those games.

On Thursday, he has to take on Chris Bassitt, who has given up just one run across 12.2 innings of work to open the 2025 campaign.

Toronto has won just one of those starts from Bassitt, but it has dominated Boston in this series, outscoring it 14-4.

I don’t mind a first five innings play to back Bassitt when he’s in the game (the Jays have a 4.68 bullpen ERA), especially since Buehler has been knocked around in each of his starts this season.

Philadelphia Phillies-Atlanta Braves UNDER 7.5 (-120)

The Braves have gotten off to a terrible start in the 2025 season, but Thursday’s starter – youngster Spencer Schwellenbach – has pitched great, allowing just three hits, one walk and zero earned runs in 14.0 innings of work.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta offense has struggled, ranking 28th in MLB in runs scored and 24th in OPS.

So, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo slow down this lineup, as he’s given up just seven hits and two earned runs across 12.0 innings of work.

The UNDER is 7-4 in the Phillies’ 11 games and 6-4-1 in the Braves’ 11 games. With the Atlanta offense stuck in mud early on in 2025, 7.5 runs is a little too high for my liking tonight.

Jesus Luzardo OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)

And now for a prop in the Phillies-Braves series finale!

So far this season, Luzardo has 19 strikeouts in two starts, punching out at least eight batters in each game.

Yet, he’s set at just 5.5 in his strikeout prop for Thursday night against a Braves team that is 23rd in the league in K’s per game – averaging over nine punchouts a night.

That’s not going to cut it against Luzardo, who ranks in the 96th percentile in strikeout percentage and 89th percentile in whiff percentage, per Statcast.

Luzardo is also coming off averaging over 10 K’s per nine innings in two of his last three seasons. He’s currently leading MLB in K’s per nine innings and is a great target on Thursday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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