Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Yankees-Orioles, Mets-Nationals and Tigers-Astros)

A bunch of new series begin in Major League Baseball on Monday, and there are plenty of ways to bet on these matchups.

Monday’s action features just eight games, highlighted by the red hot New York Mets (8-2 in their last 10) taking on the Washington Nationals in a divisional battle. Plus, the Los Angeles Dodgers are massive favorites in the late game on Monday against the Miami Marlins.

I’m eyeing three matchups to bet, including two teams to win outright on April 28.

Here’s a breakdown of those games, their latest odds and my prediction for Monday’s MLB action.

MLB Best Bets for Monday, April 28

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

New York Yankees-Baltimore Orioles First 5 Innings OVER 4.5 (-180)
New York Mets Moneyline (-162) vs. Washington Nationals
Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-112) vs. Houston Astros

New York Yankees-Baltimore Orioles First 5 Innings OVER 4.5 (-180)

The New York Yankees are the No. 1 offense in Major League Baseball when it comes to OPS and they’re No. 2 in runs scored entering their series opener against the Baltimore Orioles on Monday night.

Baltimore, which is off to a dreadful start at 10-17 and has lost three in a row, has not been nearly as good offensively, ranking 21st and 19th in those respective categories.

On Monday, the Orioles have rookie Tomoyuki Sugano on the mound, and while he’s pitched decently this season (3.54 ERA), some of his underlying numbers show that he’s due for some regression.

Sugano has allowed six homers over his last four starts, and his Fielding Independent Pitching has soared to 5.84. In addition to that, he ranks in just the ninth percentile in expected ERA, first percentile in strikeout percentage and second percentile in whiff percentage.

That’s going to be a problem against a potent Yankees offense. While I could pick the Yankees to win, I’m not sold on that with Will Warren toeing the rubber for New York.

This season, Warren has a 4.79 ERA, and the Yanks are just 2-3 in his five outings. While he hasn’t been terrible, Warren has given up at least two earned runs in four of his five appearances in 2025.

So, while both starters are likely in the game, I’m taking the OVER 4.5 runs in the first five innings. Sugano has also given up two or more earned runs in four of his five starts, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see both teams get on the board early on Monday night.

New York Mets Moneyline (-162) vs. Washington Nationals

The Mets are rolling right now, but so are the Nationals, as they’ve won six of their last 10 games to move into third place in the NL East.

However, New York has a massive pitching advantage that I just can’t pass up in this game.

The Mets are sending Griffin Canning to the mound on Monday, and he’s led the team to a 4-1 record in his five starts while posting a 3.12 ERA and 3.32 FIP. Canning has allowed just nine runs in 26.0 innings of work.

Trevor Williams is on the bump for Washington, and the veteran righty has gotten off to a slow start in 2025, posting a 5.11 ERA in five outings. He has allowed just one run in each of his last two outings, but he opened the season with 12 earned runs in his first three appearances.

New York’s offense has been lethal over the last 15 days, ranking 10th in MLB in OPS during that stretch while Washington is just 24th. Plus, the Nats – despite their solid record – still have a minus-13 run differential on the season.

I’ll back New York with Canning on the bump on Monday.

Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-112) vs. Houston Astros

It’s been a strange start to the season for the Houston Astros, as they are just one game over .500 and have one of the worst offenses in baseball through their first 27 games.

Houston ranks:

26th in OPS
25th in runs scored
25th in hits
22nd in walks
27th in home runs
21st in batting average

Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers enter this matchup with the No. 11 ranking in OPS and runs scored this season.

While offensively the Tigers have an advantage, I’m also backing them on the bump in this one.

Detroit is sending Jack Flaherty to the mound, and the righty has gotten off to a strong start in 2025, posting a 2.63 ERA in five starts. Somehow, Detroit has managed to lose four of his five outings, but I think that changes on Monday.

Houston has Ronel Blanco on the mound for the sixth time this season, and the righty has not been as good as he was to start 2024. This season, Blanco is 2-2 with a 5.01 ERA. While the Astros have won three of his starts, Blanco has given up at least three earned runs in three of them.

Flaherty, on the other hand, has just one outing where he’s given up three earned runs. I’ll trust Detroit to get a road win with the superior pitcher on the mound.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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