MLB Playoff Odds and Probabilities: Every Team's Chances to Make MLB Postseason

We're now two months into the MLB season, so teams have begun to separate in the standings. That makes this the perfect time to take a look at each team's chances to make this year's postseason.

In this article, we're going to take a look at two different projections for each team's MLB chances. We'll primarily use the latest betting odds, but we'll also compare those odds to the latest postseason probabilities posted at FanGraphs. That way, we can not only find out a team's true playoff odds, but we can also determine if there's any betting value to be had.

Let's dive into it.

American League Playoff Standings and Odds

Teams currently in a playoff spot

Rays -1600 (92.1% on FanGraphs)
Guardians -250 (70.3%)
Athletics +150 (41.6%)
Yankees -5000 (97.8%)
White Sox +370 (11.7%)
Rangers -170 (54.1%)

Teams currently outside of the playoffs

Mariners -180 (70.2%)
Twins +340 (24.5%)
Blue Jays +125 (35.1%)
Red Sox +160 (35.6%)
Orioles +390 (16.7%)
Tigers +330 (27.5%)
Royals +425 (15%)
Astros +500 (7.1%)
Angels +2200 (0.8%)

Congratulations to fans of the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, who both have a 92%+ probability of making it to the MLB postseason. The Cleveland Guardians, Texas Rangers, and Seattle Mariners are the three other teams with a better than 50% chance of making it.

When comparing the betting odds at DraftKings and the playoff probabilities at FanGraphs, there are a few notable differences. The Mariners have the biggest edge. DraftKings has its odds of making the playoffs set at -180, an implied probability of 64.29%; therefore, there's an implied edge of 5.91% compared to the FanGraphs probability of 70.2%.

If you want to bet on a team to miss the playoffs, consider the Toronto Blue Jays. You can bet on them to miss the playoffs at DraftKings at -145, an implied probability of 59.18%. Compare that to FanGraphs, who project the Jays having a 64.9% probability of missing the playoffs, an edge of 5.72%.

National League Playoff Standings and Odds

Teams currently in a playoff spot

Braves -3000 (96.8% on FanGraphs)
Dodgers -10000 (98.9%)
Brewers -330 (76.4%)
Padres -145 (43.3%)
Cardinals +290 (29.5%)
Cubs -500 (65.6%)

Teams currently outside of the playoffs

Diamondbacks +190 (36.8%)
Reds +360 (11.3%)
Pirates +270 (43.3%)
Phillies -130 (60.6%)
Nationals +2500 (2.2%)
Marlins +1200 (3.1%)
Mets +380 (26.1%)
Giants +1000 (6.2%)
Rockies +3500 (0.0%)

Congratulations to fans of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves, who both have a 96%+ chance of making the MLB Playoffs. The Brewers, Cubs, and Phillies are the other three teams with a 50%+ chance of making the playoffs.

There are a few big edges to be found in the National League. The biggest one is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have odds of +270 at DraftKings, an implied probability of 27.03%. That's way off FanGraphs' probability of 43.3%, an edge of 16.27% if you believe FanGraphs' projections are accurate.

On the other side of things, consider betting the San Diego Padres to miss the playoffs. DraftKings has its chances of missing the playoffs set at +125, an implied probability of 44.44%. Meanwhile, FanGraphs believes they have a 56.7% chance of missing out on the postseason. If you think FanGraphs is correct in their projection, then you have a 12.26% edge by betting on the Padres to miss the playoffs.

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