Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Anthony Edwards, Pistons-Cavs, Timberwolves-Spurs)

Two spots in the Conference Finals are on the line on Friday night, as the San Antonio Spurs and the Cleveland Cavaliers need one win to advance in the NBA Playoffs.

Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs dominated in Game 5 against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday, and they’ve had two days off ahead of Friday’s Game 6 in Minnesota, where they are set as road favorites.

Anthony Edwards and the Wolves haven’t gone quietly all postseason, winning four of their five home games, and they’ve advanced this far despite being underdogs in every game. So, can they force a Game 7?

I’m eyeing two bets in the Spurs-Timberwolves matchup, including a prop for Edwards, who has thrived in elimination games in his playoff career.

In the Eastern Conference, there’s a side that I like in Game 6, especially after Cleveland finally shook off a brutal road record to win Game 5.

The Cavs are undefeated at home in the playoffs, and they’re set as favorites against a Detroit team that consistently struggled on offense in the postseason, and J.B. Bickerstaff benched All-Star Jalen Duren (who has not played well this postseason) down the stretch of Game 5.

So, does Detroit have enough to get past a Cleveland team that has been great at home?

Here’s a complete breakdown of the odds and my analysis for each bet in today’s edition of Peter’s Points.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 295-257 (-6.85 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1586-1493-27 (+26.30 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

San Antonio Spurs -4.5 (-110) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards 25+ Points (-153)

San Antonio Spurs -4.5 (-110) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota has been a great story this postseason, as it has fought back without a healthy team to force six games in the Western Conference semifinals. Despite that, I can’t get behind the Wolves at this number in Game 6.

Minnesota may only be alive in this series because of Wembanyama’s ejection (which was deserved) in Game 4, and it failed to cover at home in Game 3, allowing him to score 39 points in the process.

The Spurs are the No. 1 defense in the NBA Playoffs and rank in the top three in the league in offensive rating, defensive rating, net rating and effective field goal percentage.

Meanwhile, the Wolves are shooting just 41.4 percent from the field in this series, and they’ve simply been outclassed since Game 2. Yes, Minnesota is 4-1 straight up at home, but it has been blown out twice by a Spurs team that has more depth.

Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels have not been efficient enough scoring the ball in this series to help Anthony Edwards, and the Spurs have done a great job taking the Wolves out of their rhythm on offense by blitzing Edwards. That’s led to 80 turnovers in five games, making it extremely tough for Minnesota to keep pace with an efficient Spurs offense.

It’s certainly possible that the Wolves force a Game 7, but it’s hard to look at the results of this series and say that these teams are equals. After all, Minnesota now has a minus-3.5 net rating in the playoffs despite winning six of 11 games.

I’ll lay the points with Wemby and company on Friday night.

Extra Bet: I like both the Spurs and Cavs to close things out on Friday night – Cleveland’s offensive rating is nearly 14 points per 100 possessions better at home – and a parlay for both teams to win outright is currently +129.

Anthony Edwards 25+ Points (-153)

Edwards has seen all types of defensive coverage from the Spurs in this series, yet he’s scored 32, 36 and 20 points in his last three games (all starts). The 20-point showing in Game 5 came on just 13 shots, and I expect Ant to be much more aggressive with the Wolves’ season on the line.

In his playoff career, Edwards is averaging 25.9 points per game, and this is the first postseason where he hasn’t averaged at least 25 per game in his entire career.

When facing elimination, Edwards has put up 30, 34, 29, 27, 16, 29, 28 and 19 points. So, he’s scored at least 25 in six of eight games. He’s averaging 26.5 points on 22.5 shots in those games, so I expect his volume to increase on Friday night.

Edwards’ two best games in this series came at home, and the two days off between Game 5 and Game 6 are huge for him since he’s dealt with knee injuries all postseason. I think this line is a steal as the Wolves look to force a Game 7 in this second-round series.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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