Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Cavs vs. Pistons, Donovan Mitchell)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons.

Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell is an interesting prop target in Game 7. | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Another playoff series, another Game 7 for the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers, as both squads are going the distance for the second time this postseason. 

Detroit stayed alive in Game 6 in Cleveland, handing the Cavs their first home loss of the postseason with a dominant performance. Now, Detroit is favored at home in Game 7, where it already has one series win (in the first round against Orlando) this postseason. 

The Cavs also won a Game 7 in the first round at home, but now they have to go on the road, where they have just one win in the 2026 NBA Playoffs (Game 5 of this series). Cleveland’s offense has fallen off a cliff on the road this postseason, as it has an offensive rating of 106.7, and it ranks 12th of out 16 playoff teams in effective field goal percentage. 

So, should bettors look to fade the Cavs on Sunday night? 

I’m eyeing two plays for this standalone game, including a player prop for Cavs star Donovan Mitchell, who may be a fade candidate when it comes to his passing in Game 7. 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 297-258 (-6.09 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1588-1494-27 (+27.06 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Detroit Pistons First Quarter Moneyline (-135) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
• Donovan Mitchell UNDER 3.5 Assists (-112)

Detroit Pistons First Quarter Moneyline (-135) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

So far in this series, the Pistons have led after the first quarter in five of six games, including all three of their games at home. 

So, I’m betting on Cunningham and company getting off to a fast start in Game 7. The Pistons have won Cade’s minutes in nine of their 13 games this postseason, so I like taking Detroit in the opening quarter when Cunningham usually plays the majority – if not all – of the frame. 

This season, Detroit is 54-38-3 in the first quarter of games, and oddsmakers actually have the Pistons (4.5-point favorites) favored by more than usual in the opening frame on Sunday. 

Cleveland has struggled on the road in the 2026 postseason, posting an offensive rating of 106.7 and a net rating of minus-8.2. So, it wouldn't shock me if the Cavs got off to a slow start, especially since they have struggled in the first quarter in this series. 

Detroit has the fourth-best first quarter net rating (plus-5.1) of any team in the playoffs while the Cavs (minus-1.4) are seventh. Since the Cavs have struggled on the road this postseason, I expect the Pistons to carry some momentum over from their Game 6 win into Sunday’s series finale. 

Donovan Mitchell UNDER 3.5 Assists (-112)

Donovan Mitchell is averaging 25.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and just 2.9 assists per game in the playoffs, making him an interesting fade candidate when it comes to his assists prop on Sunday. 

Mitchell is averaging over seven potential assists per game in the playoffs, but it hasn't translated into major assist numbers in any game this postseason. Mitchell has just three games (out of 13) during this playoff run with four or more dimes, including just one game in this series. 

During the regular season, the Pistons were No. 1 in the league in opponent assists per game (23.5), and they’re allowing just 20.5 opponent assists per game in the playoffs (also No. 1 in the NBA). 

Mitchell has just one game (Game 3 of this series) since the Cavs’ first two games of the playoffs with four or more dimes, and he took 20 shots and dished out just one assist in Game 7 against Toronto. 

I expect Mitchell to look for his shot more with a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals on the line on Sunday night. 

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