Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Devin Booker, Heat-Warriors, Clippers, 76ers)

The NBA is set to honor the great Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. on Monday, Jan. 19, as there are games starting as early as 1 p.m. EST.

A full nine-game slate is a dream for NBA fans, and it includes nationally televised matchups between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks and New York Knicks and the Boston Celtics and Detroit Pistons:

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks (1 p.m. EST)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2:30 p.m. EST)
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Washington Wizards (3 p.m. EST)
Dallas Mavericks vs. New York Knicks (5 p.m. EST)
Utah Jazz vs. San Antonio Spurs (5 p.m. EST)
Indiana Pacers vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7 p.m. EST)
Phoenix Suns vs. Brooklyn Nets (7:30 p.m. EST)
Boston Celtics vs. Detroit Pistons (8 p.m. EST)
Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors (10 p.m. EST)

With so many games to dive into on Monday, I’m eyeing several plays in today’s edition of Peter’s Points – my daily NBA Best Bets column for Sports Illustrated.

Here’s a look at the odds and my explanation for each of these bets on Jan. 19.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 144-103 (+16.14 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1435-1340-27 (+49.29 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Los Angeles Clippers-Philadelphia 76ers Moneyline Parlay (-130)
Ajay Mitchell OVER 14.5 Points (-124)
Devin Booker OVER 23.5 Points (-114)
Golden State Warriors -5.5 (-115) vs. Miami Heat

Los Angeles Clippers-Philadelphia 76ers Moneyline Parlay (-130)

A little two-team moneyline parlay to kick off the day? I think both of these teams are in great spots to win against the two worst teams in the East.

Los Angeles Clippers

Even though Kawhi Leonard is out for the Clippers on Monday (and he’s expected to miss Tuesday’s game as well), I’m buying them as road favorites in this matchup with Washington.

L.A. has won five games in a row and ranks fifth in the NBA in net rating (+6.6) over its last 10 games. On top of that, the Clippers have improved to 3-3 against the spread as road favorites.

Now, they take on a Washington Wizards team that has just 10 wins all season and has lost six games in a row. Over their last 10 games, the Wizards have a net rating of -9.1 – which is 29th in the NBA.

Since Trae Young isn’t playing yet, the Wizards essentially swapped CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert for nothing earlier this month. That has left an already thin team even thinner – and younger – at this point in the season.

I’m buying the Clippers to take care of business, especially since they’re up to 9-6 against teams that are under .500 this season.

Philadelphia 76ers

Paul George and Joel Embiid are questionable on Monday night against the Pacers, but I’m buying the 76ers regardless in this matchup.

This season, the Pacers are by far the worst road team in the NBA, going 2-17 straight up while posting a league-worst net rating of -13.8.

The Pacers are just 8-11 against the spread in road games, and they have an average scoring margin of -14.2 points in those matchups. So, even a short-handed Sixers team should be able to win this matchup pretty handily.

Philadelphia is 13-5 against teams that are below .500 this season, and it beat the Pacers by 10 earlier this season (at home) even with Tyrese Maxey out. Maxey will be in action in this game, which gives the 76ers an even higher ceiling on offense.

I think this is a no-brainer bet with Indiana better off finishing with one of the worst records in the league this season to secure a better draft pick.

Ajay Mitchell OVER 14.5 Points (-124)

Former second-round pick Ajay Mitchell has become a reliable secondary scorer for the Thunder (behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) this season, and he was even better in the 19 games that Jalen Williams missed to open the campaign.

Now, with Williams out of the lineup due to a hamstring injury on Monday, I’m buying Mitchell to pick up the slack on offense.

Mitchell averaged 15.9 points on 12.5 shots per game during the 19-game stretch that Williams was sidelined, shooting 46.4 percent from the field. He's now averaging 14.2 points per game for the season, nearly a two-point drop off from his average without Williams. In 22 games with Williams in the lineup, Mitchell is averaging 12.7 points on 9.2 shots per game while shooting 50.5 percent from the field.

So, the young guard has been more efficient when Williams is in the lineup, but he's seen way less volume. That makes sense, as a lot of the non-SGA minutes are now dominated by Williams, but that won't be the case against Cleveland.

The Cavs are just 15th in the NBA in defensive rating this season, and they're allowing over 26 points per game to opposing point guards. That's a good sign for Mitchell, who should play more minutes on Monday where he is the focal point of the offense.

Devin Booker OVER 23.5 Points (-114)

Devin Booker's points prop is set well below his season average on Monday, which is interesting since he played his usual role in the win over the Knicks on Saturday.

Booker finished that game with 27 points on 18 shots in over 38 minutes of action, yet he's set well below that number against a Brooklyn team that is just 24th in the league in defensive rating.

The potential return of Jalen Green (hamstring) could be playing a factor, but Green is likely going to be on a minutes limit if he plays since he re-injured his hamstring the last time he returned to action.

Booker has 24 or more points in six of his eight games this month and 24 of his 38 games this season. He's a great bet at this number against a Nets team that is clearly tanking in the Eastern Conference.

Golden State Warriors -5.5 (-115) vs. Miami Heat

The Golden State Warriors are rolling right now, winning seven of their last 10 games and three in a row heading into Monday’s matchup with Miami.

Jimmy Butler is expected to be back in action after missing Saturday’s win over Charlotte, and that’s a huge boost for the Warriors. Golden State has a 16-6 record at home this season, posting some impressive ATS numbers at Chase Center as well:

Warriors at home: 13-9 ATS, +7.7 scoring margin
Warriors as home favorites: 12-7 ATS, +10.5 scoring margin

The Heat have been decent against the spread on the road – 10-7 against the number as road underdogs – but they’ve won just seven of 20 games outright. I think that sets up well for Golden State with this spread set inside two possessions.

The Heat are without Tyler Herro in this matchup, which may make it harder for them to compete offensively.

After a great start on offense this season, the Heat have slipped to 19th in the league in offensive rating. I don’t think that’ll get it done against a Warriors team that is sixth in defensive rating and one of the best home teams in the league.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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