Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Giannis, Wemby, Timberwolves, Warriors, Raptors)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on New Year’s Eve.

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo is a great prop target on Wednesday. / Sam Sharpe-Imagn Images

2025 closes out with a huge slate of NBA games on Wednesday, as 18 teams are in action, including a few of the top teams in the league. 

The marquee matchup on New Year’s Eve features an NBA Cup Championship rematch between the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs, but we’ll also see the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets (without Nikola Jokic), Minnesota Timberwolves, Orlando Magic and Golden State Warriors take the floor tonight. 

Monday’s picks in Peter’s Points didn’t go so well, as Jokic’s injury spoiled our Nuggets moneyline play and Jalen Brunson fell two points shy of clearing his prop for us. 

Still, the 2025 part of the 2025-26 season has gone extremely well, as I’m up nearly 10 units so far this season. 

Let’s get some positive momentum going into the New Year with tonight’s picks! Here’s a complete breakdown of each play and the latest odds on Wednesday night. 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 117-87 (+9.90 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1408-1324-27 (+43.05 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Golden State Warriors-Toronto Raptors Moneyline Parlay (-114)
• Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 (-108) vs. Atlanta Hawks
• Victor Wembanyama OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-104)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 27.5 Points (-107)

Golden State Warriors-Toronto Raptors Moneyline Parlay (-114)

Golden State Warriors

This is a must-win game for Steph Curry and the Warriors, who beat the Brooklyn Nets in Brooklyn on the second night of a back-to-back on Monday.

Golden State takes on OKC in its next game, and it can’t afford to fall back under .500 if it still wants a real shot at a top-six seed in the Western Conference. This is simply a game that a playoff team has to win. 

Oddsmakers have the Warriors favored by 6.5, but I am just going to take them to win outright in this matchup.

Charlotte ranks 20th in the NBA in net rating this season, and it’s down two bigs in Ryan Kalkbrenner and Mason Plumlee while one of its leading scores – Miles Bridges – is questionable.

The Warriors have a clean injury report (outside of Seth Curry), putting them in a great spot to pick up a road win. 

The Hornets are 7-9 at home and 9-7 against the spread in those games, but the Warriors are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now, ranking sixth in the league in net rating over their last 10 games.

With a matchup with OKC looming, I’ll back Golden State to win on Wednesday. 

Toronto Raptors

The Denver Nuggets are now down four starters heading into their matchup with the Toronto Raptors, who are 10-7 at home this season despite a shaky against the spread record. 

Toronto has not been great against the spread at home, but I think this is a prime spot to back Scottie Barnes and company to win with Nikola Jokic out.

Jokic is going to miss the next four weeks with a hyperextended knee, and Jamal Murray is the only healthy starter for a Denver team that was not built to withstand this many injuries (no team is) to so many key players. 

This season, the Nuggets are +11.9 points per 100 possessions when Jokic is on the floor and -5.4 points per 100 possessions when he’s off the floor. 

They fell apart against Miami on Monday once the three-time MVP exited, and they don’t have Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson and Christian Braun to lean on to help carry the load in this matchup. 

Toronto has won back-to-back games and sits in the No. 4 spot in the East, and it’s No. 7 in the league in defensive rating this season. That’s going to make things tough on a makeshift Denver offense on Wednesday. 

Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 (-108) vs. Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks have dropped seven games in a row, allowing 125 points or more in all of them, making them a tough to bet on – even at home – on Wednesday night. 

Trae Young (questionable) missed the team’s last game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and Atlanta’s offense would take a little hit if he can’t suit up on Wednesday. Still, the Hawks have actually been much better record wise without the All-Star guard in the lineup, as their defense has fallen off a cliff in the games that he’s played in. 

Over their last 10 games, the Hawks have a net rating of -7.2, which is good for 27th in the league. Over that same stretch, the Timberwolves are ninth in net rating, and they’ve moved up to ninth in offense, fifth in defense and eighth in net rating overall this season.

Minnesota is 9-6 straight up on the road this season, but it has covered in just six of those games. Still, I love the Timberwolves in this matchup with the Hawks struggling to stop anyone right now. 

The Wolves are too good of a defensive team for Atlanta to get away with a track meet on Wednesday, and the Hawks have lost four of their seven games on this skid by seven or more points. 

Victor Wembanyama OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-104)

Spurs star Victor Wembanyama has returned to the team’s starting lineup over the last two games and has played over 27 minutes in each, a sign that he’s nearing a return to his normal workload after dealing with a calf strain earlier this season.

On Wednesday, Wemby has an intriguing matchup with the Knicks, a team that he has shot the 3-ball well against in his career. In his last three meetings with the Knicks (including the NBA Cup Championship), the Spurs star has four, six and two made 3-pointers, taking at least six shots from deep in each of those games.

While the former No. 1 overall pick has just four games (including the NBA Cup Championship) with multiple made 3s since he returned from his calf injury, I think he’s undervalued in this matchup.

The Knicks rank 27th in the NBA in opponent 3s per game and 21st in opponent 3-point percentage, and clearly something about the team’s defensive scheme against Wemby has led to the star taking a ton of shots from deep. 

He attempted six 3-pointers against New York in the NBA Cup, and a similar number of attempts on Wednesday should be enough to push him over this line. This season, Wemby is shooting 34.9 percent from beyond the arc on just 4.2 attempts per game – down from 8.8 attempts per game last season. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 27.5 Points (-107)

Since returning from injury, Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo has been on a  mission, leading the team to a 2-0 record while shooting an insane 21-for-31 from the field.

He’s scored 29 and 24 points in his first two games back despite playing less than 26 minutes in each game, and I think he could have a huge game – even in limited minutes – on Wednesday against the Washington Wizards.

Washington ranks 30th in the NBA in defensive rating and 29th in opponent points per game, and Antetokounmpo has dominated the franchise in recent games.

Over his last 10 games against the Wizards, he’s scored at least 28 points in seven of them and at least 23 points in nine of them, including a 37-point game in 27 minutes earlier this season.

Giannis is taking a ton of shots this season (17.1 per game) and he’s shooting an insane 64.3 percent from the field. As long as he plays around half of the game, I think the Bucks star will be in line to clear this prop on Wednesday night. 

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.