Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Brunson, Cavs-Spurs, Nuggets-Heat)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Monday, Dec. 29.

New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson is a great prop target on Monday. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

A massive 11-game slate in the NBA is set for Monday, Dec. 29, as there are only a few days left in 2025 and we’re already starting to see which teams can truly compete for a title.

A few of those teams – the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, New York Knicks, Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs – are in action on Monday, giving bettors some intriguing games to dive into. 

After a strong Christmas week, which included a 6-for-7 showing on Christmas Day, I’m looking to close out the year with a few more winners in Peter’s Points. 

What a Christmas it was!

Mitchell O 3.5 3s Made ✅
Brunson 25+ ✅ / Curry 25+  ❌ (parlay) 
Knicks ML ✅ + Warriors ML ✅ (parlay) 
Spurs +9.5 ✅
Flagg O 29.5 PRA ✅
Durant O 24.5 PTS ✅
Jokic O 22.5 R + A ✅ https://t.co/vXblhosFaL

— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) December 26, 2025

On Monday, I’m targeting a player prop for New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson, as well as a pair of small favorites to win outright. 

Here’s a full breakdown of each pick and the latest odds for Monday night’s action.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 117-84 (+12.90 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1408-1321-27 (+46.05 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• San Antonio Spurs Moneyline (-148) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
• Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-135) vs. Miami Heat
• Jalen Brunson OVER 29.5 Points (-108)

San Antonio Spurs Moneyline (-148) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Spurs are just 2.5-point favorites in this game against Cleveland, but I’m going to take them to win outright with Victor Wembanyama back in the starting lineup and starting to see his minutes increase again.

De’Aaron Fox is questionable, but the Spurs have been by far the better of these two teams this season.

San Antonio is sixth in the NBA in net rating (+6.2) while the Cavs have a net rating of +1.7 this season and rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating. On top of that, Cleveland is just 4-6 in its last 10 games and is under .500 (6-8) on the road.

The Spurs are 11-3 at home this season and 9-4-1 against the spread in those matchup. I expect them to win this game, especially with everyone outside of Fox good to go on Monday. 

Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-135) vs. Miami Heat

Denver is down three starters (Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson and Christian Braun), but I still like the Nuggets to win as small favorites on the road in Miami.

Denver has been a great road team this season, going 12-4, and Miami has won just three of its last 10 games. Plus, Tyler Herro is out of the lineup for the Heat, who have slipped to 17th in the NBA in offensive rating this season.

Now, they’re taking on the No. 1 offense in the league, and Nikola Jokic has been on an absolute heater this month, averaging 31.4 points, 12.3 rebounds and 11.3 assists per game. 

The Nuggets have the third-best net rating in the NBA while Miami has a net rating of -3.0 over its last 10 games. I’ll gladly take the Nuggets to win outright with the Heat looking more and more like a fringe top-six team in the East. 

Jalen Brunson OVER 29.5 Points (-108)

New York Knicks star Jalen Brunson is averaging 29.5 points per game this season while shooting 48.0 percent from the field and 38.0 percent from 3. 

On Monday, he takes on a New Orleans Pelicans team that is down both Jose Alvarado and Herb Jones (two of the team’s best defenders). The Pelicans rank 27th in the league in defensive rating, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Knicks’ offense has a big showing on Monday night.

Brunson has scored 30 or more points in 16 of his 28 games this season, and he’s taking a career-high 21.7 shots per game.

With Josh Hart out on Monday and Miles McBride questionable, the Knicks may need even more from Brunson to pick up a road win. New York has struggled on the road this season, so I wouldn’t be shocked if this ends up being a close game where Brunson takes a bunch of shots down the stretch.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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