Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Brunson, Celtics, Pistons, Thunder)

Wednesday’s seven-game slate in the NBA features several of the top teams in the standings, and I’m eyeing a few to secure a winning day in today’s edition of Peter’s Points.

On Tuesday, a pair of underdog bets came up short, as the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets both blew early leads, and the Spurs handed us one of our worst beats of the season, struggling mightily in the fourth quarter against Houston to lose by five.

Despite that, I’m eyeing a bounce-back showing on Wednesday night, including bets for each of the No. 1 seeds in action.

Tonight’s plays have a little something for everyone, as I’m sharing my favorite player prop, underdog pick and a moneyline parlay.

Here’s a complete breakdown of the bets for Jan. 21.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 148-106 (+16.59 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1439-1343-27 (+49.74 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

3-Team Moneyline Parlay (-113)
Brooklyn Nets +11.5 (-110) vs. New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson OVER 25.5 Points (-122)

3-Team Moneyline Parlay (-113)

To kick off Wednesday’s action, I’m backing three of the best teams in the league to simply win on Wednesday night.

Boston Celtics

Boston is in a great spot to pick up a win on Wednesday, as it takes on the Indiana Pacers, who are just 2-18 on the road.

The C’s are tied for No. 2 in the league in net rating (+7.4), and they’ve already beaten Indiana by eight or more points twice this season. The Celtics have an average scoring margin of +8.5 points per game when favored at home.

With Jaylen Brown (probable) expected to play in this game, I think Boston bounces back from a loss to Indiana the last time these teams played.

On the road this season, the Pacers have an NBA-worst -13.6 net rating and are dead last in offensive rating and effective field goal percentage. I don’t trust them against a Boston offense that is No. 2 in the league in offensive rating at 121.4.

Detroit Pistons

The Detroit Pistons are just 6-9 against the spread as road favorites this season, but I’m buying them against the lowly New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday.

New Orleans has dropped eight of its last 10 games to fall to 10-35 on the season, and it ranks 26th in the NBA in net rating at -7.1. While the Pelicans are one of the better teams against the spread this season, they are just 11-10-1 ATS as home dogs.

The Pistons enter this game on a three-game winning streak, and they’ve posted an impressive 13-6 record on the road this season. In addition to that, Detroit is now tied for second in the NBA in net rating (+7.4).

I can’t get behind the Pelicans in this spot, as they’ve been one of the five worst teams in the NBA all season long.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder are heavily favored on Wednesday against the Milwaukee Bucks, even with star forward Jalen Williams out with a hamstring injury.

However, OKC blew out the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday, and it’s now 19-1 this season when Williams is out. So, this may be a blessing in disguise for the Thunder, as they take on a Milwaukee team that is under .500 against the spread as a home underdog.

The Bucks have some bad losses in recent weeks, and they’re just 24th in the league in net rating. On top of that, Milwaukee has been awful when Giannis Antetokounmpo is on the bench, posting a net rating of -9.8 points per 100 possessions.

So, there’s a chance the Thunder overwhelm the Bucks in the non-Giannis minutes on Wednesday.

Milwaukee is also just 6-18 against teams that are .500 or better, so I don’t see it keeping up with the No. 1 team in the NBA that has posted a net rating of +13.1 in the 2025-26 campaign.

Brooklyn Nets +11.5 (-110) vs. New York Knicks

The New York Knicks are just 2-9 in their last 11 games, and they were blown out as double-digit favorites (at home) against the Dallas Mavericks on Monday.

Now, the Knicks host the Brooklyn Nets, who are just 12-29 this season, but can we really trust New York to cover this number?

I’m not buying it, as the Knicks’ recent struggles have come from poor defensive play. They rank 26th in the NBA in defensive rating over their last 10 games, and they’re 28th in net rating over that stretch.

Brooklyn is one of the two teams worse than the Knicks in net rating over its last 10, but the Nets are only 4.3 points per 100 possessions worse than this Knicks team.

After a strong start at home, the Knicks have fallen to 14-8 against the spread at Madison Square Garden and have covered the spread in just three games since Dec. 18.

I have no confidence in the Knicks to win at margin right now, so I’ll take the Nets to keep this within 11 points on Wednesday.

Jalen Brunson OVER 25.5 Points (-122)

Jalen Brunson made his return from an ankle injury on Monday against the Dallas Mavericks, scoring 22 points on just 9-of-24 shooting from the field.

Despite that, I think he’s a bounce-back candidate at home against the Brooklyn Nets, who rank 26th in the NBA in defensive rating.

Brunson is averaging 28.1 points per game this season while shooting 47.1 percent from the field and 38.6 percent from beyond the arc. He’s also taking 21.0 shots per game, giving him a super high floor when it comes to any scoring prop.

This prop is set well short of Brunson’s season average, and he’s scored 26 or more points in 26 of his 38 games this season.

With the Knicks struggling as of late, Brunson may have to handle a major workload on Wednesday for New York to win.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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