Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Brunson, Celtics, Rockets, Heat-Raptors)

Just three days remain in the NBA’s regular season (no games on Saturday), and I’m nearing the 450-bet mark on the road to 600 bets this season.

That doesn’t include many of the futures bets that I placed before the season that have yet to be decided, but for now I’m still up just over two units in the 2025-26 campaign.

On Thursday, a six-game slate is highlighted by a potential playoff preview between the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics, and Jalen Brunson is an intriguing prop target in that matchup.

I’m also eyeing a total and a two-team parlay, targeting mainly teams that have playoff or play-in implications on the line.

Here’s a breakdown of each of Thursday’s bets!

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 241-200 (+2.09 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1532-1437-27 (+35.25 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Miami Heat-Toronto Raptors UNDER 238.5 (-112)
Jalen Brunson 7+ Assists (-171)
Boston Celtics-Houston Rockets Alt Line Parlay (-159)

Miami Heat-Toronto Raptors UNDER 238.5 (-112)

The Miami Heat have one of the highest-scoring offenses in the NBA, and they rank No. 1 in the league in pace.

Yet, they haven’t been able to figure out the Toronto Raptors, making the total for Thursday’s games one of the more shocking numbers on the board.

This season, these teams have combined for 202, 203 and 216 points in three meetings, including their game earlier this week. The Heat have yet to crack 100 points against Toronto, and now it has Norman Powell listed as questionable, though the star guard plans to play.

Toronto ranks ninth in opponent points per game and 22nd in points per game on offense, which has made it one of the best UNDER teams in the NBA.

In fact, the UNDER has hit in 62 percent of the Raptors’ games this season (49 of 79). I think this total is way too high given how these teams have fared against each other this season.

Jalen Brunson 7+ Assists (-171)

New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson has been on a tear passing the ball as of late, averaging 8.5 assists per game in 22 games since the All-Star break.

Brunson has picked up at least seven dimes in 17 of those 22 games, and he’s picked up at least eight assists in each of his last two games against the Boston Celtics.

Even though Boston is fourth in the league in opponent assists per game, I love this line for Brunson on Thursday night. Since the break, he’s averaging 12.5 potential assists per game, and the Knicks’ offense has thrived when the star guard is getting others involved.

He should be able to take advantage of a C’s defense that is going to try to slow him down as a scorer on Thursday.

Boston Celtics-Houston Rockets Alt Line Parlay (-159)

Boston Celtics +12.5 (-359)
Houston Rockets +5.5 (-363)

Boston Celtics

Boston is just 1-2 against the Knicks this season, but this is the first meeting that it’ll play with Tatum in the lineup in the 2025-26 season.

The Celtics have listed four starters as questionable for this matchup, so it makes sense that they’re underdogs against a Knicks team that still needs a few wins to lock up the No. 3 seed in the East.

Despite that, I’m going to take the points on Thursday.

New York has struggled against some of the top teams in the league, losing all of its games with the Detroit Pistons and Oklahoma City Thunder while dropping at least one game against Boston, San Antonio and Cleveland.

The C’s are 10-6 against the spread as road underdogs this season, and I think they may be undervalued even if Jaylen Brown sits in this game. Boston is 8-1 straight up in the games that Brown has missed this season, and it remains third in the NBA in net rating.

Since I moved this spread into double digits, I feel very confident Boston will hang around enough to cover this line against New York.

Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets have won seven games in a row and are 1.5 games out of the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference entering Thursday’s matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers.

Philly is expected to hae Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George all in action, but I’m moving this line to get the Rockets as 5.5-point home dogs (instead of 3.5-point home favorites).

Houston is fifth in the NBA in net rating (+10.9) over its last 10 games while the Sixers are just 15th (+2.6) during that same stretch.

Philly has also struggled against teams that are .500 or better in the 2025-26 season, going 18-32 straight up.

I like this extra cushion for the Rockets, but I think they win this game outright on Thursday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $300 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet and that bet wins.